Subscribe
E-Paper
Pyongyang taking calculated risk for better position, experts say
By Yi Whan-woo
How should the recent North Korean behavior that mixes provocations with good-will gestures be read, not that it is anything new?
Still, on Oct. 7, a boat trespassed into South Korean waters in the West Sea, followed by anti-aircraft fire at propaganda balloons sent by activists on Oct. 10. There were two violations of the Armistice Agreement over the weekend in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), the four-kilometer buffer separating the two Koreas.These took place after the surprise Oct. 4 visit by a high-level Pyongyang delegation to Incheon.
So the core question is whether they represent an escalation that could lead to an inter-Korean conflict on a bigger scale. It has long been believed that if there is another conflict on the Korean peninsula, it could unexpectedly arise from a small clash.
But for now, experts place a greater emphasis on the scenario that the North is taking a calculated risk, and expect more provocations on a small scale to force the South to hold inter-Korean military talks.
The impoverished regime then will seek to bring economic support from the South in separate talks focusing on inter-Korean cooperation other than military fields, the experts added.
They also emphasized the two Koreas are not likely to engage in a war under "any circumstances."
"I'd say North Korea's series of military provocations are carefully calculated in order to heighten fear of an armed conflict between the two Koreas," said Kang Myung-do, a North Korean studies professor at Kyungmin College.
The two Koreas exchanged gun fire at the military demarcation line (MDL) after North Korean soldiers advanced toward the South on Saturday and Sunday. The MDL is the land border dissecting the Korean Peninsula.
No casualties were reported. But Pyongyang apparently has perplexed Seoul as they took place after the surprise visit by the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's confidants — Hwang Pyong-so, Choe Ryong-hae and Kim Yang-gon — to Incheon. They and South Korean officials agreed to hold inter-Korean talks by the end of this month at the earliest.
The two countries also exchanged machines gun fire on Oct. 10 after the North Korea apparently shot down balloons carrying anti-Pyongyang propaganda leaflets flown by South Korean civil activists in Paju, Gyeonggi Province.
On Oct. 7, the South and North Korean patrol boats exchanged fire after a North Korean naval vessel crossed the North Limit Line (NLL), the de facto maritime border.
"Public concern about military threats will grow in South Korea and calls for military talks are likely to spread. That's where Pyongyang could come in and propose such talks exclusively."
Paik Hak-soon, the director of the Center for North Korean Studies at Sejong Institute, voiced a similar view.
"No inter-Korean talks on the economy and business sectors will be possible under the May 24 Sanctions. North Korea will seek to engage in military talks first," he said.
Effective on May 24, 2010, the punitive sanctions ban all inter-Korean cooperation, including trading activities, except for those within the Gaesong Industrial Complex in North Korea in response to Pyongyang's sinking of the South Korean frigate Cheonan in March of that year.
"North Korea also has been infuriated by Seoul sending airborne leaflets as the messages have been extremely critical of its leaders. It will seek to have the South Korean government ban its people to do so by bringing up the issue at the military meeting."
According to Kang, the regime is making a separate approach in terms of military and economic issues in inter-Korean relations.
"It knows too well that hard-line President Park Geun-hye will not change her North Korean policy that assumes Pyongyang will give up its nuclear programs to receive economic support," he said.
"The North will never give up such weapons of mass destruction, which will be with dealt at the military talks. At the same time, it's desperate to receive financial support from us to rebuild itself.
"By separating the two issues, it will be in a better position to demand us to lift the May 24 measures while maintaining its nuclear weapons."
Both Kang and Paik turned down speculation that repeated armed struggles between the two Koreas could result in a war.
"What North Korea really wants is economic development and there's no chance a war will happen," Paik said.
"North Korea has been spending money to built resort infrastructure, such as a ski resort and a mega-sized water park under the Kim Jong-un regime. The investment was large enough to make bombs if Pyongyang ever considered having a war with us."
