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By Tong Kim
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In their private meeting at the Vatican, Moon conveyed North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's message that he will "enthusiastically welcome the pope if he comes to North Korea." The pope said he could go if Kim sent him an official invitation.
His Holiness Francis is the respected leader of 2 billion Catholics worldwide, including over 6 million in Korea. His voice is influential on the issue of peace. If everything goes well, the pope can visit Pyongyang next year when he travels to Japan. His visit will help North Korea become a normal state and contribute to settling the peace on the peninsula.
He has been a strong advocate for reconciliation and peace. South Korea was the first Asian country he visited after he became pope. He prayed for the PyeongChang Winter Olympics, three inter-Korean summits, and the Singapore U.S.-North Korea summit.
President Moon in his own right has been quite successful in improving relations with North Korea, to the extent of concern that he was moving too fast ahead of the slow pace of denuclearization, ironically risking discord with the Trump administration, which says inter-Korean relations should be part of, and they should proceed in tandem with, the denuclearization process.
There is a clear difference between Seoul and Washington on the North Korean issue. Seoul believes that Washington should give something ― a war-ending declaration or a partial easing of sanctions ― to enable Pyongyang to take the next step to denuclearization.
Washington is adamant against undermining the efficacy of sanctions. It is wary of the possible crumbling of the sanctions regime by China and/or Russia. Washington believes Pyongyang will eventually yield to the pressure of sanctions. It also believes that sanctions and military threats had brought the North to the table, although there is no objective evidence to support or reject this claim.
Seoul and Pyongyang are working together to reduce tensions in the Demilitarized Zone by various measures including establishing a no-flight zone. But, they cannot start actual economic cooperation without the easing or lifting of some or all of the multiple sanctions imposed by the U.N. Security Council, the U.S., and South Korea.
Given the entrenched, fixed positions of the North and the U.S., it is difficult to predict when a second U.S.-North Korea summit, which they agreed on Oct. 7 to hold "as soon as possible," will take place after the November midterm elections. Trump will not go to the next summit, unless he is assured of something concrete to agree on to claim as major progress.
Improved inter-Korean relations and enhanced mutual trust and confidence can help North Korea find some level of comfort in its search for security assurances, upon which the North should advance the path of denuclearization.
In addition to the North's distrust of the United States, there is another problem. The North Koreans learned that when a new administration comes in Washington or in Seoul, policies change. At this point, they seem to be more hopeful of a better deal from President Trump than from his hard-line advisers. After all, it was Trump who canceled military drills in Korea.
The North knows that even Democrats in the U.S. Congress have unfavorable views of it. Trump may have turned out to be good for it. But Pyongyang doesn't know whether he will be reelected for a second term. It doesn't know who will be the next president of South Korea.
If a conservative government replaces the Moon government in the next election, which is quite possible, inter-Korean relations could fall back to where they had started. In the South, the conservatives constitute a significant portion of the population, who oppose Kim Jong-un and his regime.
Kim would want to see Moon's policy continue, even after he leaves office. As the chairman of the ruling Democratic Party, Lee Hae-chan, said recently, "inter-Korean relations were interrupted, while the conservatives were in power."
To keep the reins of government from the conservatives, the liberals must rise to meet the challenges of the economy and reform. Moon has received a high mark for his peace efforts, but low marks for his failing economic policy, and for no progress in institutional reforms which he pledged upon taking office.
Tong Kim (tong.kim8@yahoo.com) is a Washington correspondent and columnist for The Korea Times. He is also a fellow at the Institute of Corean-American Studies.
