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'New Silk Roads': insightful yet incomplete

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A train runs on a railway track of the Qinghai-Tibet railway that connects Xing, Qinghai Province to Lhasa, Tibet Autonomous Region of China. /gettyimagesbank
A train runs on a railway track of the Qinghai-Tibet railway that connects Xing, Qinghai Province to Lhasa, Tibet Autonomous Region of China. /gettyimagesbank

Author disregards soft power to assess new world order

By Kang Hyun-kyung

The "United States-China rivalry" has become a buzz phrase since 2010 when China replaced Japan as the world's second-largest economy. A publication boom has followed and pundits discussed topics, such as the rise of China and its implications for the United States, which has enjoyed superpower status since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

In South Korea, rising China has caused a heated debate among foreign policy experts regarding the possible ramifications of the U.S.-China rivalry for the country. Some described South Korea as a shrimp maneuvering desperately to survive amid the tough fight between two whales. The shrimp analogy came as the United States is South Korea's most important ally providing a security guarantee, whereas China is its largest trading partner and South Korea's economy hinges on the neighbor.

So the question related to South Korea is about what if its two key partners clash over certain issues and as a consequence, South Korea will be forced to choose between the two. Which one it would choose: its key security ally or the largest trading partner?

As the question answers itself, many foreign policy experts at home and abroad were convinced that the changing world will end up with a bipolar system where the two big powers compete hard to gain what they want and rally support from other countries to confirm their global leadership.

Amid a flood of books about the U.S.-China rivalry, British historian Peter Frankopan's new book "The New Silk Roads: The Present and Future of the World" envisions the future of the changing world in a very different manner.

Based on economic data, including global GDP trends and spending growth, the historian argues the forthcoming world order will be multipolar, not bipolar as the popular global debate indicates.

Claiming the rise of the East ― which he dubs the Silk Road countries ― as an outstanding phenomenon, Frankopan says China, Russia and Iran are three big powers shaping the spine of the Silk Road and their emergence ultimately poses a threat to the current superpower United States.

"From the perspective of the United States, something seems to have gone badly wrong with the spine of the Silk Roads, where China, Russia and Iran ― three of the largest and most important states in the world ― are deemed to pose a direct threat to the United States," he wrote.

"The New Silk Roads: The Present and Future of the World" by Peter Frankopan

Frankopan, a professor of global history at Oxford University in Britain, argues the possible confrontation between the United States and the rising three Silk Road countries is, to some degree, a consequence for which the United States is partly responsible.

He indicates U.S. President Donald Trump's hawkish foreign policies towards the trio naturally caused them to stick together to confront the superpower United States. He wrote diplomatic and political pressure on Russia has served to push Moscow closer to Beijing.

The historian observes China and Russia are doomed to be close for their mutual economic reliance on each other. "Chinese imports of energy resources have become disproportionately important to the Russian economy… In 2017, Russian oil shipments to China went up by 40 percent," he wrote.

Trump's foreign policy in the Middle East also played a part in pitting the United States against Iran which consequently enables Iran to get closer to China and Russia, the historian says.

Frankopan says the shift of world power to the East is evident when one looks at economic data. "The rising wealth in the East is eye-opening in its scale," his book reads. The historian cites the world's fastest-growing retail market in Pakistan, the dramatic expansion of the middle class in India, and the ever-growing luxury products consumption in China as some examples of the global GDP shift to the Silk Road countries.

Their growing influence is also felt in ownership changes in some English football clubs, such as Manchester City FC which is owned by UAE royal family member Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

Just as his earlier version "The Silk Roads: A New History of the World" pulled together a global success, Frankopan's follow-up "New Silk Roads" is an insightful, enjoyable piece that reminds his readers of the forgotten world history.

However, there is something missing in his assessment of world power.

The author neglects the other key element of power ― soft power.

The rise of the Silk Roads countries is also noticeable in terms of their cultural charm. South Korea's superstar boy band BTS, for example, has rocked the world and its fan base is stretched all across the world. Some analysts compared the South Korean band's popularity in the U.S. mainstream music scene as something akin to the British invasion in the 1960s.

Chinese and Indian films made their significant marks in Hollywood. Asian cuisine is popular. There are a lot more that can prove Silk Road countries' cultural charm appealed to the Western consumers. In a digital era, soft power has become even more important.


Kang Hyun-kyung hkang@koreatimes.co.kr


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