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| In this Feb. 3, 2019, file photo, U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun arrives at Incheon International Airport in Incheon, South Korea. Biegun has returned Friday, Feb. 8, 2019, AP-Yonhap |
By Kim Yoo-chul
The United States and North Korea should go into their second summit ready to agree to a "modest deal," political analysts in Seoul said last week.
They said the chances of the two countries reaching a "small or practical" deal in Vietnam later this month were far higher than in Singapore in June, last year, as both President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un want "something substantial and visible" from their second meeting.
"Negotiators should aim for small, concrete achievements that serve the main parties' long-term interests. For Washington, progress toward verifying nuclear facilities and for Pyongyang, a commitment to negotiating an end to the Korean War. In addition, for both Koreas, a reopening of now-halted joint economic projects," the International Crisis Group (ICS) said in a recent report.
As the think tank noted, the contours of a credible quid pro quo are already on the table with South Korean President Moon Jae-in mediating relevant procedures for trust-building between Washington and Pyongyang.
The United States has demanded that North Korea hand over a full list of its plutonium and uranium enrichment facilities and nuclear assets. Also, it wants North Korea to allow third-party inspectors to verify the destruction and disposal of nuclear facilities in return for reciprocal measures, it said.
"In practical terms, North Korea wants a political declaration that the Korean War is over as well as some sanctions relief. It's highly unlikely that the two sides will announce a dramatic outcome at the upcoming summit given the continued doubts by pundits in Washington over the North's assessment of its nuclear program," said Yang Moo-jin, a North Korean expert in Seoul.
The ICS report said possible reciprocal measures may bring about objections from hawkish U.S. officials. But Trump has reined in these hawkish officials before; therefore, the report said, "He can do so again."
Yielding conditions
U.S. State Department spokesman Robert Palladino said in a news briefing that the sanctions relief North Korea has been demanding will follow its denuclearization. Palladino added the United States-Vietnam history "reflects the possibility for peace and prosperity."
But Palladino declined to specify what kinds of sanctions relief Washington was considering, although senior nuclear negotiators and top-level government officials are stressing the possible economic benefits that the North would get if the Kim regime completes denuclearization.
Choi Kang, a senior researcher at the Asan institute in Seoul, said because both Trump and Kim want to keep talking via working-level discussions to narrow further differences in the path to nuclear disarmament, any detailed agreement in a new document would help both Trump and Kim win "diplomatic victories."
"No nuclear tests have been reported over the last couple years and it's fair to say that the Korean crisis had greatly been addressed given a series of measures by the Koreas to reduce military tension on their border, and the North's leader's vowing to improve its economy. Now, it's time to turn to other things focusing on measurable and manageable plans," according to Choi.
As it's crucial for the North Korean leader Kim to get sanctions relief, accepting U.S. demands for verified closure of its nuclear facilities will be a meaningful indicator of an openness to broader disarmament, the analysts said.
At a minimum, North Korea feels that it can get better terms and more favorable treatment directly from Trump at the upcoming summit.
They say, if that's the case, a pause since the June agreement is putting in place the necessary rationale to jog Trump's foreign policy team into "deal-making mode" for the meeting of the two leaders.
For South Korea, a re-opening of the Gaeseong Industrial Complex and an early resumption of other inter-Korean economic projects will be crucial for Seoul, giving fresh momentum for President Moon to claim that he is delivering on a promise to improve Seoul's economy.
"It would also be symbolically important for the North, demonstrating that there is some flexibility on sanctions on the part of the United States," the ICS report added.
