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| In this June 20 photo provided by the North Korean government, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, right, shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping at Kumsusan guest house in Pyongyang. KCNA via AP |
By Kim Yoo-chul
Expectations are high for a possible major breakthrough in dialogue aimed mostly at dismantling North Korea's nuclear program, as both U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un are stressing that they still have a "good relationship" despite the collapse of their second summit in Hanoi, Vietnam.
Since the very beginning of the denuclearization process, President Moon Jae-in has not been a bystander. He was described earlier as a "mediator" in the process. But because a mediator should not usually have a significant relationship with or complex interests in either party, Moon's role has evolved over the last year to become a "facilitator." President Moon was a hidden force in brokering the Hanoi summit in February.
General sentiment on Moon's contributions in the process is that "Moon is good enough to get credit" for peace talks with North Korea as it was him who initially and continuously encouraged dialogue with the North.
But the South Korean leader's role as "mediator" in the complicated nuclear diplomacy is being challenged as Chinese President Xi Jinping is aiming to expand his influence in the denuclearization process on the Korean Peninsula by using his recent summit with the North's young leader as a "good opportunity" to reinsert his country in inter-Korean issues, said presidential aides and political analysts in Seoul.
"China is using North Korea as leverage in the denuclearization process. It wants to act like a big player by bolstering its position in the nuclear diplomacy with the United States over the approach to denuclearization," a high-ranking government official told The Korea Times last week.
At the recent high-stakes summit in Pyongyang, Xi told Kim Jong-un that Beijing would help Pyongyang maintain Kim's leadership, an apparent reference to China's opposition to any moves in contemplating regime change in North Korea. Xi also encouraged Kim to resume his nuclear dialogue with Trump.
In response, the North Korean leader told Xi that he was waiting for an "active response" from Washington. Kim Jong-un didn't elaborate on what exactly he was seeking, according to China's state-run CCTV and Xinhua news agency, which were allowed to cover the summit. In Hanoi, North Korea demanded the United States partially lift sanctions in exchange for its plans to dismantle its Yongbyon nuclear complex, but Trump refused to accept the request, and the meeting ended without any agreement.
It's no coincidence that the Xi-Kim summit happened a week before the planned Xi-Trump summit at next week's G20 meeting in Osaka, Japan. Xi's visit to North Korea is viewed by many as a reminder that without China's cooperation, United States-led maximum pressure will be fruitless when it comes to the denuclearization talks.
Multilateral dialogue? President Moon fails to impress Kim
As Xi made it clear that Beijing "would take a constructive role" in resolving the North Korean nuclear conflict through diplomacy, President Moon is asked to figure out solutions that could satisfy Beijing, Pyongyang and Washington.
Thae Yong-ho, a high-profile former North Korean diplomat who had defected to South Korea, claimed Xi may deliver Kim Jong-un's new proposal to Trump at the G20 summit. Thae said Kim may have proposed some compromise on his nuclear facilities to make the third U.S.-North Korea summit happen.
"Honestly, we are worrying over China's influence in the process as it was President Moon convening many working-level discussions and delivering messages from Washington to Pyongyang, time-to-time. Given the complicated features and diverse mechanics of the issue, the presidential office will be teaming up with relevant ministries to keep South Korea's role in perspective," a presidential aide said asking not to be identified.
South Korea sent 50,000 tons of rice recently to the impoverished North via the U.N.'s food agency, World Food Program (WFP), as part of a small conciliatory measure and limited sanctions relief. Seoul plans to send more food products.
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| In this June 20 photo provided by the North Korean government, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, right, shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping at Pyongyang Sunan International Airport in North Korea. KCNA via AP |
President Moon will have considerable difficulty in maintaining his self-proclaimed role of the mediator, according to some experts. "In one case, Kim Jong-un wanted the reopening of Gaeseong Industrial Complex in North Korea and a resumption of tourism projects for cash. President Moon failed to receive Trump's support of these hopes. That raised an issue of trust," one diplomat in Seoul said.
"Trump is weighing more in addressing trade problems with China as trade talks continued. As the U.S. elections are approaching, Kim Jong-un is likely to pass his nuclear disarmament updates to Xi Jinping and Xi is expected to use the North Korean issue as leverage to get better conditions and concessions from Trump before reaching a deal that would end the trade dispute," said Lee Seong-hyon of the Sejong Institute think tank, adding North Korea's nuclear negotiations with the United States have entered a stage of deep stagnation.
On the economic front, China's expanded role in the denuclearization process would help Kim "buy more time" in enduring today's economic hardships. China is North Korea's essential economic lifeline.
While sanctions remain in place on the North, there are several cases of illicit cross-border and ship-to-ship trade in international waters that have been a vital linkage for the cash-needed regime.
Kim Kyung-min, a politics professor at Seoul's Hanyang University, said the Trump administration will be dissatisfied with China's growing role in the process because the U.S. president wants to use the North Korean issue as an "appealing point" to win more backing at next year's election campaign. "If multilateral talks that include the Koreas, China, Japan, Russia and the United States happen, then that would jeopardize President Moon's role in the process," Kim said.
Last decade, the six countries had a series of multilateral talks for the purpose of dismantling North Korea's nuclear program. China was the first to host the talks. The negotiations produced agreements. But North Korea left the negotiating table in 2009 and withdrew from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT).
