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| U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hands with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at the inter-Korean border village of Panmunjeom on June 30. Yonhap |
By Lee Min-hyung
North Korea is unwilling to hold nuclear talks with the United States as of now, and will continue to delay the dialogue until the year-end deadline set by the North's young leader Kim Jong-un, experts said Tuesday. The negotiation between Washington and Pyongyang on the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula has faced ups and downs this year following the failure of the Hanoi summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Kim in February.
But with two of the world's most unpredictable leaders holding an unexpected "mini summit" at the inter-Korean border area on June 30, expectations resurfaced over the possible resumption of dialogue.
At that time, the North also expressed its determination to resume working-level talks with the U.S. "in the next few weeks" following the meeting. Pyongyang, however, did not keep the promise, citing a number of excuses, such as a joint military exercise between Seoul and Washington.
Experts here said chances remain very slim that the two sides will resume their working-level or high-level dialogue anytime soon, as they have yet to narrow their differences on denuclearization.
Washington wants to sign a one-shot big deal to achieve complete denuclearization of the peninsula, but Pyongyang is still sticking to its previous position of taking a step-by-step approach.
"As of now, the two countries are showing no signs of making concessions, so it is unlikely that the North will respond to the repeated U.S. calls to resume nuclear talks," said Park Won-gon, a professor of international politics at Handong Global University.
"My view is that they will not be able to hold any sort of official talks by the end of this year," he said. "But there still stands an ample chance for Trump and Kim to hold a summit sometime later this year to make a breakthrough in their stalled dialogue momentum."
On top of that, there is less urgency for the North to restart the talks amid growing security uncertainties on the southern side of the peninsula, which is a boon for Pyongyang.
The trilateral security alliance among Seoul, Tokyo and Washington has in recent weeks shown signs of a possible crack in the wake of the South's decision to scrap a military intelligence-sharing pact with Japan. The move came in response to Tokyo's economic retaliation against Seoul over their historical dispute.
The North hopes to continue taking advantage of such political uncertainties from its enemies to gain leverage in its upcoming nuclear talks with the U.S.
Kim Yeol-soo, director of the security strategy division at the Korea Institute for Military Affairs, concurred with Park over the possibility of a summit between Trump and Kim in the near future.
"The success of the potential summit depends on which cards both sides will play not to repeat Hanoi," Kim said.
For example, the expert said Trump could offer to suspend joint military exercises with Seoul in exchange for Pyongyang's promise to dismantle its Yongbyon nuclear complex plus some unspecified additional steps.
"There are a variety of negotiating chips that both sides can play during the possibly upcoming summit," the expert said. "The key lies in whether Trump and Kim will be able to reach any consensus in exchanging the cards."
