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Seoul asked to offer 'big promises' to North Korea

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By Lee Min-hyung

Unification Minister Kim Yeon-chul
Unification Minister Kim Yeon-chul
The government is asking the United States and the governments of regional allies to promise not to launch military offensives against North Korea in order to convince Pyongyang to give up its nuclear weapons.

Providing sanctions relief alone may be insufficient, as North Korean leader Kim Jong-un might not have thought out a clear cut plan regarding his regime's nuclear disarmament despite repeated commitments to denuclearize at previous inter-Korean and U.S.-North Korea summits.

There is a rationale that what Kim has done so far since the beginning of the process represents the opposite, given the continued missile testing.

The United States Forces Korea (USFK) recently confirmed that North Korea's Hwasong-15 inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) has the capability to strike targets on "any part of the U.S. mainland." This enhanced warhead delivery technology when coupled with the 100 nuclear warheads ― an estimate by the U.S.-based think tank RAND ― that Pyongyang would have by 2020, could enhance its retaliatory threat.

From that perspective, many think Kim can't afford to drop what's widely considered as the "only protection" to shield his regime from external aggression.

Deterrence also represents a retaliation threat. Once both elements are present, threat of retaliation is considered credible. In the case of the North Korea, it seems to have both.

South Korea's unification ministry is failing to impress because it has been reluctant to come to grips with the North's behavior regarding the nuclear issue.

Pyongyang declined to accept Seoul's offer to hold a joint event commemorating the first anniversary of the September 19 Pyongyang summit between President Moon Jae-in and Kim.

With the little progress the denuclearization dialogue has seen, the South's recent proposal was regarded as a "push factor" for the North, an apparent miscalculation by the ministry. Pyongyang recently and repeatedly sent messages denouncing Seoul for "getting in the way of inter-Korean peace."

"(The incumbent administration) is clinging too much to its ideology and fails to face up to reality," Hwang Kyo-ahn, chairman of the main opposition Liberty Korea Party, said in a recent party meeting.

Since taking power in May 2017, President Moon has placed top priority on enhancing inter-Korean relations. Moon's "engagement-centric" North Korean policy has brought some visible results as he was the "key man" in brokering previous summits between the Kim and U.S. President Donald Trump.

But, the Korean Peninsula is facing major security uncertainties after the North's repeated launches of short-range missiles and advanced projectiles; and Seoul's decision to end an intelligence sharing pact with Japan amid a bitter dispute over historical issues.


Lee Min-hyung mhlee@koreatimes.co.kr


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