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The logic of Indo-Pacific (Part 1)

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By Vishnu Prakash

The Indo-Pacific Region (IPR) spans "the shores of Africa to that of the Americas," noted Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, outlining India's vision at the Shangri La Dialogue on June 1, 2018.

He emphasized that India did not see the region as a "strategy" or a club of limited members, but as a "natural region" where all member-states are committed to a "rule-based, free, open, democratic and inclusive region in pursuit of peace, progress and prosperity."

India in fact has authored the inclusive SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) approach and prefers to engage meaningfully with all countries. The IPR is not directed against any nation, from the standpoint of New Delhi.

Why the Indo-Pacific construct? How do India, ASEAN and South Korea view it? To what extent is the rise and assertiveness of China directly or implicitly linked to the conceptualization of IPR? It is pertinent to reflect on some of these aspects.

The world is in the throes of change. Unipolarity is giving way to multipolarity. Globalization is on the retreat, with onshoring and protectionism emerging as the new mantra.

The architecture of global governance, political and economic, designed by the Allied powers after the Second World War, is getting outdated and increasingly ineffective. The World Trade Organization (WTO) is being marginalized. International economic health is a matter of concern. Nagging fears of a recession persist, though there is no saying when it will make landfall and where?

In parallel, the centre of global economic gravity is shifting to Asia. China and Japan are the second and third-largest economies in the world and India will enter the top-five bracket next year. It is poised to have GDP of $5 trillion by the mid-2020s. Intra-IPR trade and connectivity is growing. Thus, there is a need for greater coordination and cooperation, not rivalry, within the IPR.
India has age-old ties (trade, cultural and people-to-people) and strategic convergences with the IOR (Indian Ocean Region) and the IPR. Ninety percent of India's trade and energy resources traverse through the IOR and 50 percent through the South China Sea. The Indian diaspora is present in every Indo-Pacific nation.

The region faces common challenges like terrorism, climate change and natural/man-made disasters. India, home to the world's fourth-strongest military, is now a net security provider and first responder in times of crisis. India adopted a "Look East Policy" in 1991 and elevated it to "Act East" in 2014, adding a security dimension to those of greater connectivity and economic engagement with the IPR.

India, for example, was instrumental in foiling a coup and restoring the legitimate government in the Maldives in 1988 and the first to arrive with relief material in Indonesia after the December 2004 tsunami. It has been playing an active role in combating maritime piracy, search and rescue and conducting regular military exercises with the U.S., Japan, Singapore, Australia and other countries. In a first, India joined the naval drills by the U.S., Japan and the Philippines in the South China Sea in May this year.

However, India did not figure in the "Asia-Pacific" construct, a Cold War relic and, by extension, in key regional forums like APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation). The "Indo-Pacific" concept corrects this anomaly.

That said, there is no agreed definition of the IPR. It is tempered by the size, location, level of economic development, security vulnerabilities and strategic calculus of each nation. For the U.S., the "Indo-Pacific" construct is a "strategy" aimed at restraining China. In essence, it can be defined as the Asia-Pacific, plus India, minus China (and Russia).


Vishnu Prakash is a former Indian ambassador to South Korea.





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