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| Korea Institute for National Unification researcher Kim Gap-sik, center, speaks during the institute's year-end media conference at the Koreana Hotel in central Seoul, Wednesday. / Courtesy of Korea Institute for National Unification |
By Jhoo Dong-chan
The Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU) remains skeptical on the future course of North Korea's denuclearization process as the North's peace talks with the South and the United Stated show no signs of a breakthrough.
The state-funded think tank said South Korea's efforts for peace have lost momentum due to stalled peace talks between the U.S. and North Korea.
"The U.S. and North Korea have been exchanging tough remarks since their October talks failed to find a middle ground,"KINU fellow researcher Kim Gap-sik said during the institute's year-end media conference at the Koreana Hotel in central Seoul, Wednesday."Washington is stressing the importance of resuming dialogue despite its tug-of-war with North Korea, but Pyongyang is reiterating its position claiming it is meaningless to resume talks under the current circumstances."
Kim added South Korea's role in North Korea's denuclearization process has been vastly weakened as it has failed to mediate between Washington and Pyongyang's positions.
"Seoul also needs to comply with international communities' call to impose sanctionson North Korea. Under the circumstances, its role as a mediator has been greatly limited," he said.
Kim claimed there are three possible future courses in North Korea's denuclearization process ― going backward to develop its nuclear power,maintaining the status quo or entering the course of complete denuclearization.
"Pyongyang is likely to test its intercontinental ballistic missile technology shortly after it announces its New Year address if it decides to go backward," he said.
"Or, it could keep the status quo combining its hardline stance with opening a conversation window. It is highly unlikely, but it could enter a new passage of complete denuclearization. For its denuclearization, a summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is an essential prerequisite before February 2020."
Hyun Seung-soo, a director of KINU's International and Strategic Studies Division, said an increasing number of risks have come to the surface in Northeast Asia this year.
"It's not only because of stalled peace talks between the U.S. and North Korea," Hyun said.
"There are other factors. The Sino-American trade dispute has yet to be fully settled. The relationship between South Korea and Japan has been tremendously deteriorated over their history and trade issues. China and Russia are also strengthening their ties to counter the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific Strategy."
Hyun said stakeholders in the region are likely to continue their tug-of-war next year.
"There will be an election in the U.S. next year. America's global strategy to contain the rise of China is receiving bipartisan support, so the current Sino-American confrontation is expected to prolong throughout 2020," he said.
Another KINU research Seo Bo-hyuk agreed with Kim's first scenario, under which North Korea is likely to maintain the status quo combining its hardline stance with an opening negotiation channel.
"Trump needs to his expectations from the possible deal in Washington's talks with North Korea. North Korea won't give up its nuclear power under the current situation," Seo said.
"South Korea should consider every possibility to resume talks between stakeholders. The Moon Jae-in administration should also develop its own ties with Pyongyang separately from the North-U.S. relations in a bid to strengthen its leverage in the peace process."
