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| National Assembly Intelligence Committee head Rep. Lee Hye-hoon of the minor opposition Bareunmirae Party speaks during an interview with The Korea Times at the National Assembly building on Yeouido in Seoul, Dec. 23. / Korea Times photo by Shim Hyun-chul |
Rep. Lee Hye-hoon says Pyongyang and Washington want to talk
By Park Ji-won, Jhoo Dong-chan
President Donald Trump has apparently recognized North Korea as a de facto nuclear weapons state, with Pyongyang using his unique psychological makeup as a "channel" to promote its nuclear technology, according to the head of the National Assembly Intelligence Committee.
"At the very beginning of the denuclearization talks, I honestly had some expectations about the U.S. president in terms of advancing the denuclearization process. However, my conclusion now is that no visible results have come. Trump's cognitive processes, boldness and unexpected personal character helped North Korea highlight its nuclear technology and be perceived as a de facto nuclear weapons state in the international community regardless of the facts. From South Korea's standpoint, this is not good. Things have got worse," National Assembly Intelligence Committee chief Rep. Lee Hye-hoon said in an interview with The Korea Times, Dec. 23.
With the expiration of North Korea's deadline for the United States to change tack in the nuclear disarmament talks ― by lifting economic sanctions on the cash-impoverished North ― there were worries that the North was planning to resume nuclear or long-range intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) testing after a two-year hiatus. However, it's unlikely the North will resume such tests in the foreseeable future, according to Lee.
"Given previous ICBM tests, it's believed North Korea has already acquired the technology to target the mainland United States. What matters is accuracy. It's questionable whether the North has developed the technology for its ICBMs to carry small nuclear warheads. The amount of warheads developed by the North is also not substantial," she said.
Despite the continued impasse between Washington and Pyongyang in their denuclearization dialogue, the two countries are still embracing the risky "top-down personal diplomacy" as neither wants to see any backtracking in the process.
"North Korea and the United States want to talk. Simply, that's what they want as this would be beneficial to both of them on multiple fronts and from various aspects," the three-term lawmaker said at her office in the National Assembly building on Yeouido in Seoul.
In early December, Pyongyang threatened to seek a "new way" unless Washington came up with an acceptable proposal for nuclear negotiations by the end of the year. It also said it would send a "Christmas gift" to the United States, but what the gift contained would depend entirely on Washington.
While a channel for dialogue needed to be kept open, the new challenge for the United States, therefore, is how to live with and also contain a nuclear North Korea, Lee said. "Technically, North Korea is a de facto nuclear weapons state."
No huge increase in defense cost-sharing
Regarding the defense cost-sharing dispute between Seoul and Washington, Lee said Seoul isn't ready to pay a sharp increase in the country's share of the defense costs.
"South Korea can't double the amount of annual defense costs each year. That doesn't make any sense. Washington and Seoul have to first set up mutually acceptable principles on the matter; and we have to work together to narrow differences. The United States has yet to respond to South Korea's request for a gradual increase in defense cost-sharing," Lee said.
Washington and Seoul are engaged in a dispute over a defense cost-sharing agreement set to be updated at the end of the year. The latest round of Special Measures Agreement (SMA) negotiations was broken off recently in Washington as the government refused to accept the U.S. demand that it pay $5 billion for the upkeep of the United States Forces Korea (USFK) in 2020. Seoul paid $900 million in 2019.
"The United States set the total and put conditions into its guidelines. Given the longtime military alliance between the two countries, this approach is not good in terms of mutual trust. We've asked U.S. negotiators to clearly elaborate on the specifics of Washington's $5 billion request, but they failed to provide reasons for the increased costs," the lawmaker responded.
The U.S. State Department has dismissed reports that Washington may demand a 10 percent to 20 percent annual increase in the South's financial contribution to maintain the USFK. One department official was quoted as saying the 10 percent to 20 percent figure hasn't been mentioned in the SMA talks.
The lawmaker also stressed she doesn't believe it's "right" for South Korea to pay "100 percent" of the USFK costs.
"It's true South Korea has benefited from the USFK and the USFK is also helpful to the United States, as it is seen as a necessary defensive line to counter North Korea, China and Russia. The United States isn't weighing in much on the strategic value of the role of the USFK. South Korea isn't accountable entirely for the upkeep of the troops," she said, adding Seoul will pursue a different strategy for payments to maintain the USFK.
The Assembly committee head stressed Washington can't cut the number of USFK troops below 28,500 throughout this year thanks to the passing of relevant bills in the U.S. "The government doesn't have to worry about any security implications from a USFK withdrawal from South Korea."
She added the defense-cost sharing talks team will ask its Washington counterparts in the upcoming negotiations to cover "some amount" of the cost of the deployment of U.S. strategic assets flying over the Korean Peninsula.
"I've recently met with a European ambassador to South Korea. The ambassador also raised the defense cost-sharing issue. I've asked the ambassador to stand behind the South's position of pursuing equitable and accessible assessment on the matter as the country is also being asked by the United States to pay more," she stressed.
Kim Jong-un puts economic development as top agenda
While Lee said it was possible that North Korea would return to conducting low-level military provocations, she noted North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has put economic development at the top of his state affairs agenda.
"Based on my meetings with foreign ambassadors here who have close connections with North Korean officials, I am quite positive the North's economy is looking good. The North has been steady in developing market-driven structures. The regime has some better understanding of the implications of a market economy thanks to indirect and direct support from China," she said.
The rationale is that North Korea has room to earn cash from Chinese tourists traveling to Pyongyang's major tourist attractions.
"There are backdoors," Lee said.
"The economy is also booming. Product prices in street markets there have stabilized at affordable levels for ordinary North Koreans. This will provide Kim with more maneuvering room in his foreign policy."
A recent report released by the Sejong Institute, a Seoul-based think tank, showed the North Korean economy is showing signs of development despite the ongoing economic sanctions. The think tank agreed with Lee's analysis, saying the North was looking to collaborate with China in particular in the tourism industry.
Since the beginning of the denuclearization talks, Kim has wanted sanctions eased as a condition to present comprehensive denuclearization steps, but Trump has not accepted this, demanding he take the necessary denuclearization steps first.
One of the core policy goals of economic sanctions against the cash-strapped North, which were imposed by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) in December 2017, has been to encourage the North to return to the nuclear negotiating table.
Lee remained negative about the impact of offering economic benefits to North Korea. "Because I believe the North has no clear willingness to pursue denuclearization, it's risky to provide carrots. As the North has improved its nuclear technology, Seoul's last option to keep the momentum of the denuclearization talks alive is to maintain economic sanctions."
Regarding her personal thoughts on the North Korean leader, the lawmaker said Kim was "tricky to handle."
"Unlike his father Kim Jong-il who liked to pull the strings from behind, Kim Jong-un likes to show off and take the center stage. Such a trait is similar to U.S. President Trump. He also studied abroad when he was young, I believe in Switzerland. He speaks foreign languages and is familiar with Western manners. To North Korean people, it was an impeccable achievement to clinch the U.S.-North Korea summit. I understand they consider Kim Jong-un as a more capable leader. To us, he's tricky to handle," she said.
"The regime itself has also become more stable than ever before. The North had been testing its nuclear and missile technologies continuously up until 2018. This means the country's military has enjoyed sizable attention as well as support from the Worker's Party."
