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| Korean and Japanese flags are being displayed in a Korea town in Tokyo in this Oct. 22 file photo. Korea Times photo by Choi Won-suk |
By Park Ji-won
South Korean experts on Korea-Japan relations said the two countries' relations may get even worse after the court-ordered liquidation of Japanese firms' assets here in a few months.
Expecting that the liquidation of Japanese assets will occur between March and May, they pointed out it could drop bilateral relations to an even lower level and it is widely expected that they will be exchanging additional countermeasures against each other and continuing to clash over historical and economic issues.
They also pointed out there is no visible plan for both countries to resolve the liquidation issue while saying there are possibilities that both governments are taking advantage of the current situation for the sake of their domestic political interests to extend the powers of the current Moon Jae-in and Shinzo Abe administrations. Some of them said the South will try not to politicize the upcoming Tokyo Olympics, although there are still chances that Seoul may take issue with Fukushima's contaminated water before and after the international sporting event.
Forced labor issue and trade row
The center of the disputes has been the ruling by South Korea's Supreme Court over the Japanese wartime wrongdoings. It ordered Japanese firms in October 2018 to compensate the surviving South Korean victims of wartime forced labor by liquidating local assets of Japanese firms including Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. The liquidation process hasn't been carried out yet.
The decision promoted a backlash from Japan. The Abe administration criticized the decision claiming that compensation issues were settled through the 1965 bilateral treaty. In July 2019, Japan began "retaliatory" trade measures against South Korea, imposing restrictions on exports of materials needed for Korea's high-tech manufacturing industry. South Korea decided not to extend the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) to gain leverage, but ended up renewing the agreement at the last minute, and South Korean citizens began boycotting Japanese products and travel.
A yearly report released by the Korea National Diplomatic Academy said the conflict between Seoul and Tokyo over the interpretation on compensation by international law for the surviving victims of forced labor and sex slavery under the Japanese colonization period will continue this year as well.
The report said this is because the conflicts were created by a discrepancy in the 1965 treaty which established basic relations, as well as Japan's lack of historical understanding.
It also said the liquidation issue may take the relations to a new low. If the South starts liquidating assets of Japanese firms, Japan may take further retaliatory measures including one to impose additional taxes on Korean products shipped to Japan and visa restrictions on Korean citizens.
"It is possible Japan may immediately take stricter retaliatory measures than export controls against South Korea when the liquidation process begins, which is the worst-case scenario," said Yang Ki-ho, a professor at Sungkonghoe University, adding that, however, "overall, the two countries are trying not to exacerbate their relations" after the summit between their leaders in China on Dec. 24.
"The current liberal administration is facing a dilemma and taking a cautious approach to the liquidation issue. If the government wants to come up with a realistic solution on the matter, it may fail to seek a victim-centered approach which would have a negative impact for the ruling Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) in the April general elections."
Choi Eun-mi, an associate research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, also said it's possible Japan may take stricter measures including visa restrictions and investment cuts against South Korea.
"If liquidation goes ahead, Japan will take countermeasures that Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga mentioned earlier which include visa restrictions against South Korean travelers and workers in Japan… Japan also could reduce investment in South Korea," Choi said.
She also pointed out that the liquidation may snowball into another conflict between the nations and the situation can be used to manipulate domestic politics in both countries.
"If Japan implements the visa restrictions as a worst-case scenario, the South has no choice but to take strong actions in return. As the situation coincides with the April general elections here, it could be used for the sake of domestic politics."
She urged the South Korean government to come up with measures for those victims, indemnifying Japan or forming a government-led joint task force with private sector to discuss ways.
Ha Jong-moon, a professor at Hanshin University, said the liquidation process and other disputes such as the export controls are all related to each other.
"Government officials of both countries are taking a close look at the liquidation. Once the Supreme Court's rulings and related measures can make some progress, the export controls and Japan's removal of South Korea from its whitelist of preferred trading countries can be tackled as well. Japan will adjust speed on negotiations between working-level officials on trade as well."
Regarding the contaminated water, he ruled out the possibility that South Korea would boycott the Olympics citing the lack of any concrete evidence indicating otherwise.
Ha also pointed out that domestic politics in both countries might make the two take different approaches in improving bilateral relations.
"If the South Korean ruling party wins a majority in the April general election, it will create momentum to govern the country in a stable manner and the government will treat Japan with ease… Japan may dissolve its House and hold a snap election because of Abe's political scandals which will also affect the disputes with South Korea."
However, he remained skeptical that the South Korean government can come up with measures to satisfy all remaining forced labor victims through indemnification.
"The government can indemnity the surviving former forced laborers. The issue can be resolved if the victims and victims' organizations agree to accept the government's proposal which is the starting point to resolving the disputes with Japan. But it is up in the air."
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| Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe waits for a summit with South Korean Prime Minister Lee Nak-yon in his office in Tokyo, in this Oct. 24 file photo. Korea Times photo by Choi Won-suk |
