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| This photo shows fields in North Korea's Kaepung County on the western front-line border with South Korea, Monday, seen from Ganghwa Island in the South. Yonhap |
By Kang Seung-woo
North Korea watchers show mixed expectations on how inter-Korean relations will develop in the wake of a North Korean defector's return to the North, who, according to the reclusive country, showed symptoms of COVID-19 and could become the country's first officially confirmed case of the virus.
Some say the North may belatedly accept South Korea's offer for inter-Korean cooperation in quarantine and healthcare to cope with the pandemic.
According the North's Korean Central News Agency, Sunday, its leader Kim Jong-un adopted the maximum emergency system against coronavirus following a defector's return from the South with virus symptoms.
Since earlier this year, President Moon Jae-in has repeatedly offered cross-border cooperation in a bid to resuscitate North-South ties, and since the coronavirus pandemic emerged, healthcare cooperation has been at the top of the agenda.
"It is a possible scenario for inter-Korean healthcare cooperation to begin," said Cho Han-beom, a senior researcher of the Korea Institute for National Unification.
He believes that the North Korean regime is using the defector as an excuse to take the South's quarantine proposal.
"It is doubtful that a person with virus symptoms could swim across the border to the North. In addition, had he been infected here, there would have been a brouhaha in Gimpo, Gyeonggi Province, where he had lived, but there has been no urgency regarding him so far."
The North has claimed that it has kept the number of infections at zero thanks to its early border closure.
In fact, the South's health authorities said, Monday, the defector had been categorized as neither an infected person nor suspected patient.
"Blaming its first COVID-19 case upon the South Korean government, the North seemingly attempts to accept the South's cooperation offer," Cho said.
Cho expected that the healthcare cooperation will begin in earnest upon the inauguration of new Unification Minister Lee In-young, who was sworn in, Monday.
"The 75th anniversary of the founding of the North's ruling Workers' Party is scheduled for October and the construction of the Pyongyang General Hospital is being delayed, so if the South Korean government makes a push, the cooperation may start shortly," he said.
However, Kim Jung, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, said the North is not prepared for the cross-border healthcare cooperation due to its vulnerable situation.
"The North has poor healthcare infrastructure and its people have poor health conditions, so the Kim regime is excessive sensitive to a possible spread of the virus," he said.
"Under the situation, it is not likely that the North will come forward to accept the South's cooperation proposal. Rather than teaming up with the South to contain COVID-19, it is highly likely that it will address the issue using repressive measures."
Kim added, "Although the new unification minister may try to reach out to the North, I believe the northern neighbor may not be ready to accept it."
