Subscribe
E-Paper
 |
| President Donald Trump stands on the Blue Room Balcony upon returning to the White House in Washington, D.C., Oct. 5, after leaving Walter Reed National Military Medical Center, in Bethesda, Md, where he received COVID-19 treatment. The Trump administration has defined China as its biggest threat and has raised the need for a multilateral security structure in the Asia-Pacific region to counter China. AP-Yonhap |
US effort to expand strategic group set to aggravate Korea's diplomatic dilemma
By Do Je-hae
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Japan this week to participate in the second ministerial meeting of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, an informal strategic forum of the U.S. Japan, Australia and India known as the Quad.
Despite the political uncertainties that have arisen from U.S. President Donald Trump's COVID-19 infection, Pompeo went ahead with the meeting as planned Oct. 6 with his counterparts ― Japan's Toshimitsu Motegi, India's Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, and Australia's Marise Payne. The U.S. secretary of state's visit to Japan was seen to reflect the importance Washington places on the strategic group as a way to push back against China's increasing influence in the Asia-Pacific region.
The four countries did not issue a joint statement. But the meeting discussed joint response to common challenges such as COVID-19 and the realization of a "free and open Indo-Pacific," according to an Oct. 6 statement from Japan, the chair of this year's Quad conference.
Although the top U.S. diplomat skipped a planned visit to Seoul on the occasion of the Quad meeting, his trip to the region for the dialogue during a pandemic has captured a lot of attention in Korea. This is because Quad is increasingly becoming a huge key word in Korea's diplomacy amid rising speculation that Washington will seek to expand it to include more U.S. allies as part of efforts to build a global coalition against China, which Pompeo has defined as the biggest threat to the U.S. "The greatest external threat that the United States faces over the medium and long term is the threat by the regime in China today, the Chinese Communist Party led by General Secretary Xi Jinping," Pompeo said during an interview with Fox News, Sept. 28.
China has lashed out at Pompeo's remarks. "When Pompeo claimed to build out a global coalition against China, he was only talking nonsense. He won't see that day. And his successors won't see that day either, because that day will never, ever come," Wang Wenbin, spokesman for the Chinese foreign ministry, said during a press conference, Sept. 29.
 |
| Chinese President Xi Jinping delivers a statement at a high-level meeting held by the United Nations to mark the 25th anniversary of the Fourth World Conference on Women via video, Oct. 1. Beijing sees the Quad as unconducive to regional peace. Xinhua-Yonhap |
Multilateral alliance in Asia-Pacific
As the U.S. strategizes how to contain the increasingly assertive China, some key Washington officials have been underscoring the need for a multilateral structure in the Asia Pacific. This has fanned speculation about the U.S. move to expand the Quad, with the aim of formalizing a NATO-like alliance.
During a recent forum, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun said, "It is a reality that the Indo-Pacific region is actually lacking in strong multilateral structures. They don't have anything of the fortitude of NATO or the European Union. The strongest institutions in Asia oftentimes are not inclusive enough. There is certainly an invitation there at some point to formalize a structure like this."
Experts contacted by The Korea Times were divided on the prospects of Washington actually moving to enlarge the Quad, inviting more regional allies such as South Korea. Some say it is in the interests of the U.S. to expand the Quad and raise its credibility to more effectively counter China. But skepticisms remain about the realization of a NATO-like multilateral framework in the Asia-Pacific for various reasons. Gregg A. Brazinsky, a professor at the Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University, noted that some countries do not share common security objectives.
"The U.S. would likely want to see South Korea play some role in the Quad. At the same time, I think developing multilateralism in Asia has proven more difficult than in Europe and that will likely be the case for the foreseeable future," Brazinsky told The Korea Times. "There are some common threats to countries in the region but there are many objectives they do not share. For instance, one of India's priorities when it comes to security will always be Pakistan but this is not an important priority to Japan. Similarly, India has not been as concerned about the threat from North Korea. Thus even though they have recently signed a new 10-year security pact, it may not lead to true multilateralism."
Some experts also question the need for NATO-like alliance under the current geopolitical situation in the Asia-Pacific. "If we understand why NATO was first conceived during the Cold War, it was to prevent the recurrence of another great war and to deter the common threat posed by the Soviet Union. Like-minded nations joined together to form and institutionalize this security alliance as a united bloc because there were overlapping interests," J. James Kim, senior research fellow at the Center for American Politics and Policy, Asan Institute for Policy Studies, told The Korea Times. "The question is whether countries in Asia see a threat today in the Pacific that is comparable to the threat that Soviet Union posed for the Europeans after WWII."
More importantly, there are concerns that a multilateral security architecture in the Asia-Pacific could escalate tension in the region because of how China may react to such an organization.
"If there is not enough consensus, it will be a challenge to form and institutionalize an alliance similar to NATO. But if there are enough countries who share common interests and values, and also agree on the threat perception in the Indo-Pacific, then we may eventually get to something that approaches NATO. If such a multilateral security architecture is formed in the Pacific, it may pose a threat to countries like China," Kim said.
"The question as to whether this will increase tension in Northeast Asia depends on what China does. Just as China may respond belligerently, it may decide that it is not in Beijing's best interest to challenge or take on such a multilateral security apparatus on its own. In this case, China may resort to one of several strategies. One may be to form an alliance of its own much like the Warsaw Pact that the Soviets created during the Cold War. Or it may engage in pressure tactics to pressure or dissuade countries in the region from working with the U.S allied nations."
Mason Richey, professor of international politics at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, said it is possible that the U.S. will attempt to expand the Quad, but there are hurdles. "Beijing is likely to push back against an expanded Quad, which it views as containment, and this will give pause to any new states invited to join an expanded Quad."
 |
| President Moon Jae-in speaks during a Cabinet meeting at Cheong Wa Dae, Oct. 6. Struggling to cope with the U.S.-China rivalry, the Moon administration has faced concerns that it may be unprepared for a burgeoning debate over Korea's role in a possible "Quad plus" framework. Yonhap |
Korea's response to Quad expansion
Amid the escalating U.S.-China rivalry, the diplomatic community here has underlined their concerns about a possible invitation from the U.S., Korea's most important ally, to a "Quad plus" framework. Such a request is feared to place Korea in a very difficult position as the Moon Jae-in administration has focused heavily on improving relations with China, an indispensable trading partner.
"American pressures on South Korea will put it in a difficult position. South Korea does not want to jeopardize its relationship with China but growing Sino-American frictions may force it to choose," Brazinsky said. "I think South Korea should start using its own soft power and political capital to play more of a leadership role in the region. It should try to help China and the United States to mediate their differences instead of allowing itself to get caught up and pressured by the rivalry between them."
It is in Korea's interest to become a more active contributor to regional security and other common areas of cooperation in the Asia-Pacific by taking part in a multilateral system like the Quad plus, according to some experts.
"South Korea is a major stakeholder sharing values and interests with Quad members. Lack of coordination would make Seoul look like a free-rider on regional security, susceptible to bullying by Beijing," said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.
"The Quad is not yet at a stage to even aspire to be like NATO. NATO has a mutual defense treaty, a headquarters, a governing council, and a secretary general. It won the Cold War and has undertaken military operations. The Quad is much less formal but can benefit from institution-building. It has broadened in scope from disaster relief efforts and maritime security exercises to include political cooperation on peaceful management of territorial disputes, high standards for infrastructure development, and common security in cyberspace. The Quad is not an anti-China alliance, it is expanding cooperation among like-minded countries that favor a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific."
"Korea should join the U.S. to prevent Chinese revisionism," said Brad Glosserman, senior adviser of the Pacific Forum CSIS. "To the extent that China seeks to change regional rules to its unilateral advantage, then Seoul's best interest is in preventing that. But I don't think that means joining with the U.S. but should be framed as joining with like-minded governments to protect the status quo."
Lee Seong-hyon, director of the Center for Chinese Studies at the Sejong Institute, also underlined the need for Korea to establish a solid strategy in dealing with the U.S.-China conflict. "South Korea should have thought through this in advance and come up with a response protocol at least three years ago, when the U.S.-China conflict really began to intensify, starting from the trade dispute, which later expanded to the security realms," Lee said. "The Moon Jae-in government has been complacent, lacked a historical sense of how grave the geopolitical landscape surrounding the Korean Peninsula will be and how South Korea is very vulnerable to the fluid U.S.-China rivalry."
 |
| From left, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi, Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne and U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo remove their face masks before posing for a photograph prior to the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) ministerial meeting in Tokyo, Oct. 6. AP-Yonhap |
