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| Robert Joseph, center, a senior scholar at the National Institute for Public Policy and former U.S. special envoy for nuclear nonproliferation, speaks during a forum titled, "The 70th Anniversary of the U.S.-ROK Alliance ― Onward Toward a Free and Unified Korea," on Capitol Hill in Washington, May 17 (local time). Korea Times photo by Jung Min-ho |
'Any form of diplomacy will fail; regime change is only solution'
By Jung Min-ho
WASHINGTON ― Since nuclear threats from North Korea started to emerge in the early 1990s, the United States has been trying to resolve the issue through diplomacy. Yet this did not stop Pyongyang from developing nuclear weapons. Today it is estimated to have up to 60 nuclear warheads and its stockpile is expected to continue to grow.
This worrisome state of affairs points to a need for a fundamental shift in policy. According to an expert who has been working in nuclear deterrence and nuclear arms control for the past 26 years, the first necessary step for that shift is to recognize that any negotiations or even successful treaties with North Korea will not lead to its denuclearization.
"We have put nuclear disarmament at the center of our policy on North Korea for 30 years, and we have failed consistently for 30 years," Robert Joseph, a senior scholar at the National Institute for Public Policy and former U.S. special envoy for nuclear nonproliferation, said at a forum on the 70th anniversary of the South Korea-U.S. alliance on Capitol Hill on May 17 (local time).
"I had watched North Korea go from small-scale titanium reprocessing to full-scale industrial-size uranium enrichment. They went from one or two nuclear weapons to 40 to 60 today, perhaps as many as 200 by 2027."
Washington and its allies still have the chance to stop North Korea from becoming a greater nuclear power than France and Britain and presenting a more serious threat to Seoul and far beyond with its ever-growing missile capabilities and propensity to sell anyone the weapons at every possible chance.
"This notion that we can negotiate with something as evil as North Korea is something I have trouble comprehending. North Korea is a 21st century Nazi Germany. Can you negotiate with Nazi Germany? Sure, we did. [Former British Prime Minister Neville] Chamberlain came home to London, waving a piece of paper saying 'Peace for our time.' He proved you can negotiate with evil. But he also proved what happens when you do that," Joseph said in reference to the Munich Agreement, a peace deal Nazi Germany signed a year before starting World War II.
"Yes, we need denuclearization. But we should understand that denuclearization is not going to come from negotiation. It's going to come from the end of the Kim regime."
Joseph, along with human rights experts who participated in the forum, thinks that the greatest vulnerability of the Kim Jong-un regime is from within, from the alienation of its own people who suffer under its totalitarian repression. He suggested placing human rights ― inside and outside of North Korea ― at the center of a new U.S. strategy.
"This is not human rights for the sake of human rights … This is the way to achieve national security objectives, including denuclearization," he said. "It is an approach that does not use force to overthrow North Korea. This is a regime change from within."
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| Kang Cheol-hwan, third from left, a human rights activist from North Korea, speaks during a forum titled, "The 70th Anniversary of the U.S.-ROK Alliance ― Onward Toward a Free and Unified Korea," on Capitol Hill in Washington, May 17 (local time). Courtesy of Global Peace Foundation |
This strategy should involve the U.S. and all like-minded democratic allies, the private sector, particularly IT companies, and international civil society. What they should do is to generate content and let ordinary North Koreans know what the whole world knows ― the reality of their abysmal human rights situation, the corruption of their leaders and the world outside their borders.
Such a strategy would not require any exaggeration of or propaganda about what happens in North Korea; it simply needs nothing but the truth, according to Morse Hyun-Myung Tan, dean of the School of Law at Liberty University and former U.S. Ambassador-at-Large for Office of Global Criminal Justice.
"This is the worst totalitarian dictatorship on the planet. It is the worst violator of human rights and a committer of massive atrocity crimes. It must stop," Tan said. "This regime operates on the basis of force … And sadly, they do not understand or do not respond to any diplomatic language."
North Korean escapees said one crucial part of the human rights-based strategy is to put international pressure on Beijing, which helps the regime stay in power by deporting North Korean victims of state-led human rights abuses, which is a clear violation of U.N. treaties.
"If China does not send them back, a lot more North Koreans would escape and help set up conditions (near the border) for potential popular movements in North Korea," Kang Cheol-hwan, an escapee-turned-rights activist, said. "As long as China's government keeps sending them back, revolutionary change inside North Korea would be extremely difficult to occur."
