U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un talk before a meeting in the Demilitarized Zone in Panmunjom, in this June 30, 2019, file photo. Analysts recently contacted by The Korea Times said North Korea will likely do what it can to help Trump return to the White House. AFP-Yonhap
Under President Joe Biden, Washington's North Korea policy has been consistent, with little sign of change. While strengthening security ties with his counterparts in Seoul and Tokyo, Biden has maintained a position of no-concession on the denuclearization issue.
For North Korea, changing the status quo may seem like an impossible task as long as Biden stays in power. His win in the election next year would mean four more years under U.S.-led sanctions that could further weaken North Korea's economy, which many reports suggest is in the worst shape since the great famine of the 1990s.
Experts contacted recently by The Korea Times said North Korea would hope for Biden's loss to Trump, the former president and leading contender for the Republican Party presidential nomination in 2024. All of them said Kim sees Trump as the better of the two as he seeks to advance his nuclear and geopolitical ambitions. They also said the North will likely try to help Trump win ― possibly by using both legal and illegal means.
There are many reasons for Kim to be excited about the prospect of Trump's second term. Mark Esper, who served as the Pentagon chief during the Trump administration, said in his memoir that pulling U.S. troops out of South Korea was his second-term priority.
“Withdrawing all U.S. forces completely out of South Korea may not be possible in the short term. But Kim appears to believe that there are areas where Trump could make concessions as long as his proposals meet his interest,” said Chung Sung-yoon, a researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, a state-funded think tank. “Under Trump, for example, the issue of cost-sharing for defense could reemerge, and a negotiation failure could lead to the reduction of stationed troops, joint military exercises or even no more deployment of U.S. strategic assets to the peninsula.”
Experts say North Korea would seek nuclear disarmament negotiations with the U.S. as such talks, if happened, would inevitably give it U.S. recognition as a de facto nuclear-weapons state.
Negotiations with Trump do not necessarily guarantee Washington's change of stance. “But with him, North Korea at least can try,” Go Myung-hyun, a research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, a think tank, said.
North Korea's optimism might not be unfounded. Trump and Kim may have failed to reach a deal during summits in 2018 and 2019, but their relationship may continue to this day.
The two exchanged at least 27 personal letters during the period. After leaving office, Trump told associates that he remained in contact with Kim, according to the book released last year, “Confidence Man: The Making of Donald Trump and the Breaking of America.”
Just four months ago, Trump stirred up controversy by posting a message of support for Kim on his Truth Social site, saying “Congratulations to Kim Jung [sic] Un!” after North Korea was appointed to the executive board of the World Health Organization.
This came just three days after North Korea's botched attempt to put a military spy satellite into orbit, in a clear violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions.
Supporters of Donald Trump, the former U.S. president and Republican presidential candidate, attend the Club 47 USA event in West Palm Beach, Florida, U.S., Oct. 11. Reuters-Yonhap
Security experts, such as Shin So-hyun of the Asan Institute, believe it is possible that North Korean agents may conduct influence operations on social media and other online platforms to help Trump's campaign. But given the U.S. intensified monitoring efforts following such attempts by foreign states in the past and North Korea's limited technical ability, it will more likely stick to more familiar tactics ― testing missiles and other types of weapons.
“North Korea may conduct weapons tests to show that Biden's policy has failed,” Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University, said.
The most likely ― and effective ― provocation would be successfully launching a Hwasong-18 solid-propellant intercontinental ballistic missile, which is believed to be able to hit the U.S. mainland, he added.
North Korea could also proceed with its first nuclear weapons test since 2017, which would certainly make headlines around the world and become an issue among American voters.
If Kim is serious about helping Trump, he could be more creative and strategic, Chung said.
“At the right timing, Kim could send a personal letter to Trump,” he said. “Given the style of his leadership, I think he might even have an interview with a foreign media outlet, sending obvious signs that North Korea is willing to sit down for talks after the election.”
Will North Korea maintain its hostile stance against Washington and Seoul if Biden turns out to be the winner? Experts expressed different views on that question. Chung believes North Korea will likely continue to focus on developing weapons until another opportunity comes, while others said it is expected to try to talk with the Biden administration as it will probably be unable to endure the deteriorating economic situation indefinitely.
“Given North Korea's foreign relations with Russia and China, I believe it highly depends on the geopolitical situation, including how the war in Ukraine goes,” Go said.
According to a CNN poll released last month, Trump's national lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the second most popular Republican Party contender for the presidency, widened to 34 points. In a hypothetical rematch with Biden, recent surveys found them in a dead heat.