Will President Yoon survive second impeachment vote?

Protesters hold a rally in front of the headquarters of the ruling People Power Party (PPP) in Seoul, Wednesday. They call for the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol and the dissolution of the PPP. Yonhap

Protesters hold a rally in front of the headquarters of the ruling People Power Party (PPP) in Seoul, Wednesday. They call for the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol and the dissolution of the PPP. Yonhap

Impeachment drive gains momentum ahead of Saturday's vote
By Anna J. Park

The National Assembly is expected to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol on Saturday over his short-lived martial law on Dec. 3, as a growing number of ruling People Power Party (PPP) members are voicing support for the motion, political experts and party officials said Wednesday.

Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) spokesperson Rep. Kang Yu-jung said the DPK will hold the second impeachment vote at 5 p.m. Saturday. The main opposition is expected to reintroduce the impeachment bill Thursday.

This decision came after the first vote on Saturday failed to reach the necessary quorum due to a boycott by the ruling People Power Party (PPP). Only three PPP lawmakers — Reps. Ahn Cheol-soo, Kim Yea-ji and Kim Sang-wook — cast their ballot.

However, the political landscape has drastically changed since then in favor of impeaching the president, as public outrage and mounting pressure against the ruling party have grown. Analysts now say that it is increasingly unlikely that PPP lawmakers, who hold the decisive votes for the motion, will stage another boycott.

Congratulatory wreaths are delivered to People Power Party (PPP) Rep. Kim Sang-wook are on display in front of his office in  Ulsan, Tuesday, after he said he will vote to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol in the second impeachment vote on Saturday. Yonhap

Congratulatory wreaths are delivered to People Power Party (PPP) Rep. Kim Sang-wook are on display in front of his office in Ulsan, Tuesday, after he said he will vote to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol in the second impeachment vote on Saturday. Yonhap

The anonymous nature of the impeachment vote increases the likelihood of its passage, as it allows PPP lawmakers to vote independently without party pressure. Combined with growing public sentiment and the fear that blindly opposing impeachment could potentially drag the ruling party into a political tsunami alongside Yoon, whose political life is now widely regarded as coming to an end, these factors have heightened expectations that the impeachment motion may secure the necessary support to pass this time.

Kim Sang-wook, one of the three PPP lawmakers who participated in the impeachment voting on Saturday, said that at least 10 lawmakers from the party have privately expressed their support for the motion.

Rep. Kim Jae-sub, another reformist within the PPP, called on the party to adopt impeachment as its party line.

"I, who previously abstained from the impeachment vote, now seek to impeach President Yoon. As the president has refused to step down, I urge the PPP to officially support impeachment," Kim said at the National Assembly in Seoul on Wednesday.

A protester stomps on chrysanthemums during a staged funeral ceremony for the ruling People Power Party (PPP) in front of the PPP headquarters in Seoul, Wednesday. Yonhap

A protester stomps on chrysanthemums during a staged funeral ceremony for the ruling People Power Party (PPP) in front of the PPP headquarters in Seoul, Wednesday. Yonhap

Political analysts suggest that the number of votes in favor of impeachment within the ruling party would increase, heightening the likelihood of the motion passing this time.

"This time, the PPP cannot avoid participating in the impeachment vote due to the widespread public anger. If it attends, the secret ballot (process) will increase the likelihood that lawmakers will vote according to their conscience," Park Sang-byung, a political commentator, told The Korea Times on Wednesday.

He said another reason PPP members would vote for impeachment is that it would buy Yoon time until at least March or April next year, as the impeachment trial takes a few months to be completed, compared to voluntary resignation, which goes into effect immediately.

"Furthermore, even if Yoon were to voluntarily resign, it's unlikely the opposition would accept the idea. Also, there's the risk of what would happen if Yoon refuses to step down. Lastly, as Yoon has reportedly started hiring legal counsel to prepare for the impeachment, PPP lawmakers would feel less burdened to cast votes in favor of impeachment," he added.

"Taking all this into account, the likelihood of impeachment passing is 80 percent. If it fails this time, the probability of impeachment's success later would be 100 percent."

Another pundit, Shin Yul, a professor of political science at Myongji University, told The Korea Times that he also thinks the impeachment motion will pass the National Assembly on Saturday.

"The pro-Yoon faction would also agree on casting votes on the impeachment motion, as the president himself appears to have accepted the idea of the impeachment. From President Yoon's perspective, impeachment might also be the better option. If he were to step down voluntarily, he could be accused of insurrection and face treason charges. By taking the case to the Constitutional Court, he would likely attempt to justify the martial law decision as a high-level act of governance," the professor said.

National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-shik speaks during a press conference at the National Assembly in Seoul, Wednesday. Yonhap

National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-shik speaks during a press conference at the National Assembly in Seoul, Wednesday. Yonhap

Meanwhile, National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-shik announced the National Assembly will conduct its own investigation into the Dec. 3 martial law.

Woo emphasized that the National Assembly itself was both a targeted and directly affected institution in this martial law move, given the serious testimony presented at a committee at the National Assembly on Tuesday — referring to the claim that President Yoon ordered to break into the Assembly and drag out lawmakers.

"If this testimony is true, it suggests that the president attempted to prevent the National Assembly from lifting the martial law by using coercion, effectively trying to render the Assembly's powers unusable," Woo said, stressing that a thorough investigation is necessary to identify who issued the orders, for what purpose and how these events unfolded, outlining the need for investigation.

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