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By Tong Kim
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The report was released by the Center for Strategic International Studies in Washington, igniting a public debate on North Korea, with an outburst of hawkish comments from many experts and politicians both Democrat and Republican. Some accused President Trump of being fooled by the North Koreans.
Joseph Bermudez, one of the three authors of the report, grouped the identified operating missile bases into three belts extending from near the DMZ to the border with China to the north, each of which house ballistic missiles including ICBMs according to their ranges.
The report was first published by the New York Times on Nov. 12, with the headline "In North Korea, Missile Bases Suggest a Great Deception." The story was picked up quickly by other major media outlets, questioning the North's commitment to denuclearization and President Trump's approach. Trump tweeted the story was "inaccurate" and "fake news."
It came at a time when Trump lost the House of Representatives in the midterm elections, and a few days after the North's cancellation of a scheduled meeting between Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and his counterpart Kim Yong-chol planned for Nov. 8 in New York. Pyongyang was reverting to confrontational rhetoric, denouncing U.S. sanctions, and threatening to return to the "byongjin" policy of nuclear development. Are they losing their confidence in Trump's ability to deliver?
The reported bases were not new to the U.S. and South Korean authorities. Technically, the North has not violated any agreement: There has been no agreement with the North on the operation or disposition of their missiles and missile bases; though Washington believes denuclearization should include the elimination of delivery systems of nuclear weapons.
South Korea's presidential spokesman said the New York Times' descriptions such as "deception" or "undeclared" are not helpful when there is the need for dialogue to negotiate the nuclear and missile issues. Pyongyang has not agreed to declare their weapons arsenal. So far, there is no agreement that oblige them to declare their missile bases.
In a new year's message in January, Kim Jong-un ordered mass production and deployment of missiles and nuclear weapons. However, the situation has changed with three inter-Korean summits and the historic U.S.-North Korea summit in Singapore in June.
It is true that Trump said after Singapore that North Korea was no longer a nuclear threat to the United States. While it is reasonable to accept the threatening nature of the mere existence of deadly weapons in the hands of North Korea, we should also accept that the last 10 months have been more peaceful and hopeful for denuclearization than a year earlier when both North Korea and the U.S. were threatening to strike each other.
After the Singapore summit, Trump suspended large-scale military exercises in recognition of the North's positive actions, including commitment to "complete denuclearization," no nuclear or missile tests, proceeding with the destruction of nuclear test sites, turning over of remains of the war dead from the Korean War, and restraining from saber rattling.
On the optimistic side, Kim Jong-un's return visit to the South is still possible before the end of this year, according to Seoul's Unification Minister Cho Myoung-gyon, who gave an in-depth discussion at the Wilson Center, Nov. 15. Cho included all salient aspects of inter-Korean relations as they may relate to denuclearization and the U.S.-Korea alliance.
There are indications that a U.S.-North Korea meeting may soon be held to revive the nuclear talks. Vice President Mike Pence told President Moon at the ASEAN summit that a second meeting between President Trump and Kim will take place after January 2019. Minister Cho said it is still possible to declare an end to the war within this year. He shared his insight that Kim needs it as a justification to move on in carrying out his denuclearization commitment.
From the beginning, no one thought it would be easy to negotiate with the North. Many thought it would be a difficult long haul. Many others still think that the North will never give up its nuclear weapons. Even the South Korean unification minister did not exclude the possibility that the North might want to keep some of its nuclear weapons at the end.
Seoul and Washington are rock solid in their unified position to keep sanctions on Pyongyang until after denuclearization. Will the North yield to the pressure, which is a hold up on the next step by the North? The answer is, unlikely.
Tong Kim (tong.kim8@yahoo.com) is a Washington correspondent and columnist for The Korea Times. He is also a fellow at the Institute of Corean-American Studies.
