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Can COVID-19 crisis bring Moon breakthrough on relations with Pyongyang?

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President Moon Jae-in presides over a meeting with his senior aides at Cheong Wa Dae, April 27, the second anniversary of the Panmunjeom Declaration. He said the COVID-19 crisis could present a new opportunity for the suspended inter-Korean relations. / Yonhap
President Moon Jae-in presides over a meeting with his senior aides at Cheong Wa Dae, April 27, the second anniversary of the Panmunjeom Declaration. He said the COVID-19 crisis could present a new opportunity for the suspended inter-Korean relations. / Yonhap

By Yi Whan-woo

With North Korea officially claiming to have no COVID-19 cases, speculation is growing as to whether President Moon Jae-in will be able to make his desired breakthrough in cross-border relations through cooperation on the pandemic.

The President has repeatedly expressed hope that inter-Korean cooperation could be revived by the pandemic since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China, in January, with his latest related remark being made on April 27.

Participants wave unification flags during a ceremony in Seoul, April 27, to mark the second anniversary of a summit between President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. / AP-Yonhap
Participants wave unification flags during a ceremony in Seoul, April 27, to mark the second anniversary of a summit between President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. / AP-Yonhap

Marking the second anniversary of the Panmunjeom Declaration on April 27, he again cited possible cooperation on COVID-19 as an opportunity to resume stalled talks with the North.

Some experts were skeptical about Moon's idea. Referring to their own findings and sources, they stated the virus situation in the secretive state is not as serious as people in the outside world think.

"The situation is believed to be no worse than it is in the South. And under such a situation, the North is likely to give the cold shoulder to the South's gestures for cooperation," said An Chan-il, a Seoul-based defector, researcher and commentator on Pyongyang.

He pointed out the reclusive state has locked down its border with China in January, imposing strict containment measures since then.

An argued the country also has been tightening the already strong control on citizens' movements within the country.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un presides over a meeting of the political bureau of the Central Committee of the ruling Workers' Party in Pyongyang, April 11. The bureau suggested anti-virus guidelines. / Yonhap
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un presides over a meeting of the political bureau of the Central Committee of the ruling Workers' Party in Pyongyang, April 11. The bureau suggested anti-virus guidelines. / Yonhap

The North has suspended all international trains and flights, while enforcing security checks at airports, sea ports and other border regions.

Park Won-gon, an international relations professor at Handong Global University, said the North "appears not to be desperate" when it comes to accept items from international relief organizations.

"The relief items from the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), Doctors Without Borders and UNICEF are believed to be taking more than a month to be delivered from China to the North," Park said.

He added the amounts of delivered goods "are not that much," either.

"This leads to speculation that the North is coping with the COVID-19 crisis pretty well, and if is it true, there is no reason for Pyongyang to respond to Seoul's offer for pandemic cooperation," Park said.

North Korea's Health Minister O Chun-bok claims there are no COVID-19 cases in the country during an interview with the state-controlled Korean Central Television in February. / Yonhap
North Korea's Health Minister O Chun-bok claims there are no COVID-19 cases in the country during an interview with the state-controlled Korean Central Television in February. / Yonhap

In a recent counter-argument regarding the North's claim that the country has no cases of COVID-19, U.S.-based media outlet Radio Free Asia (RFA) citing Pyongyang officials claimed the virus had existed in the North around late March. It said three areas of the country had been affected ― Pyongyang, South Hwanghae Province and North Hamgyong Province. The RFA report has raised speculations in the North that the virus has spread across the country.

"But even if that is the case, the North could refuse to accept relief aid from the South," Park said. "It is possible Pyongyang has been receiving help secretly from Beijing and not announcing it to the outside world in order to hide its lies."

Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, voiced a similar view.

"The North is unlikely to be free from the coronavirus," he said. He argued the political bureau of the Central Committee of the ruling Workers' Party of Korea came up with the anti-virus guidelines because the country is affected by the pandemic as well.

"Still, it does not mean the North will change its stance suddenly and become friendly with the South. China is the first country the North would ask for help," Yang added.

To capitalize on the COVID-19 crisis and make a new opportunity for inter-Korea ties, the analysts suggested making contact on the civic level, not on the governmental level.

"It may be important to show that COVID-19 cooperation is solely for humanitarian reasons. Otherwise, Pyongyang may view it as Seoul's attempt to flaunt its ideological superiority," An said.

He recommended delivering the goods through the Korean Red Cross or the Korean Council for Reconciliation and Cooperation, a unification-related consultative body consisting of politicians, religious leaders, scholars and civic activists.

Yang reckoned COVID-19 cooperation with the North may begin when Pyongyang accepts possible relief aid from China.

"Considering Beijing has been Pyongyang's largest benefactor, it will not make sense for the North to openly take relief goods from the South while not making support from China public," he said.

The World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed in April it had been receiving "weekly updates" from the North's health ministry.

It said the country has the capacity to test people for the virus at a national reference laboratory in Pyongyang. The WHO then confirmed testing has continued across the North and it has over 500 people in quarantine.

The U.N. approved humanitarian exemptions to the sanctions placed on North Korea to help prevent the spread of the virus in the country.

A senior Cheong Wa Dae official referred to the U.N.'s approval and confirmed COVID-19 cooperation with the North is "thus not subject to sanctions."

"We expect no major constraints," the official said on April 28.

He also said Seoul and Washington have had "close consultations" over Pyongyang-related issues.


Yi Whan-woo yistory@koreatimes.co.kr


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