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COVID-19 infections likely to spike further; gov't set to raise social distancing level

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Elderly residents aged 75 and older wait at a COVID-19 vaccination center in Gwangju, Thursday, to see if they show abnormal reactions after receiving the Pfizer vaccine shot. Yonhap
Elderly residents aged 75 and older wait at a COVID-19 vaccination center in Gwangju, Thursday, to see if they show abnormal reactions after receiving the Pfizer vaccine shot. Yonhap

By Jun Ji-hye

New daily COVID-19 cases have stayed at around 700 for two days in a row here, while medical experts warn that the daily figure could exceed 1,000 in the coming weeks.

Experts noted that it will be difficult for the nation to stave off a stronger wave of infections as it suffers from a series of unfavorable factors, including an unstable supply of vaccines and the continued spread of COVID-19 variants that are more transmissible than the original strain.

According to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA), 698 more COVID-19 cases were reported, Wednesday, including 670 local infections, raising the cumulative number of cases to 112,117.

On Tuesday, 731 cases were identified, which was the highest since early January.

Diverse indicators are showing that the COVID-19 situation is likely to become more critical.


The daily average cases per week have continued to the increase from 438.6 between March 21 and 27 to 639.5 this week.

The reproduction rate has also increased from 0.99 in late March to 1.12 last week, meaning that one patient infects 1.12 people.

A reproduction number above 1 means that one patient infects more than one person, indicating a continuous increase for the time being.

Among virus patients, the ratio of those whose infections were traced to infection clusters at certain facilities or gatherings has decreased from 33.5 percent to 27.1 percent during the same period, while the ratio of those who were infected through person-to-person contact in their daily lives has increased from 36.4 percent to 40.4 percent.

Increasing infections through person-to-person contact in daily life indicate that health authorities will not be able to stem the spread by imposing quarantine measures on certain facilities or gatherings.

The ratio of people whose infection routes have yet to be identified continues to remain at around 25 percent, making it more difficult for authorities to carry out epidemiological investigations.

The cumulative number of people infected with COVID-19 variants has kept rising as well from 54 in early February to 182 on March 8 and to 379 on Monday.

Despite worsening conditions, the government decided, April 9, to keep the current level of social distancing rules for an additional three weeks, while taking targeted antivirus measures including the temporary closures of clubs and bars in the Seoul metropolitan area and in the second-largest city of Busan.

The Seoul metropolitan area, which includes Incheon and Gyeonggi Province, is under Level 2 social distancing ― the third-highest in a five-tier system ― while other parts of the country are under 1.5, with some cities having implemented Level 2 on their own. Private gatherings of five or more people are banned nationwide.

"We are planning to adjust the social distancing level and implement tougher virus curbs after monitoring the COVID-19 situation and medical capacity this week," Yoon Tae-ho, a senior official at the Ministry of Health and Welfare, said during a media briefing, Wednesday.

Medical experts said, however, that the government should have preemptively raised its social distancing level and taken tougher antivirus measures.

"Although infections across the country have continued to occur sporadically, in addition to the continued increase in cases of COVID-19 variants, the public and the government seem to be letting their guard down," said Kim Woo-joo, a professor of infectious diseases at Korea University. "The fourth wave of infections will be more serious than previous ones."


Jun Ji-hye jjh@koreatimes.co.kr


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