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| The economy and fairness will be the key issues in next year's presidential election. From left are presidential contenders: Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung of the ruling Democratic Party of Korea (DPK), former DPK Chairman Rep. Lee Nak-yon, former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl and former Board of Audit and Inspection Chairman Choe Jae-hyeong. Graphic by Cho Sang-won |
Young voters in 20s, 30s might be deciding factor
By Jung Da-min
About seven months remain before the country chooses its new leader, and although it has yet to enter full-on election mode, dozens of contenders from both the ruling and opposition blocs have already announced their presidential bids.
From the ruling Democratic Party of Korea (DPK), six contenders are in the running but the competition is now mainly about the rivalry between Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung, and former DPK Chairman and ex-Prime Minister Rep. Lee Nak-yon. The ruling party will select its final candidate in October.
From the conservative opposition bloc, former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl has long topped opinion polls of presidential hopefuls since his resignation from the top post in early March. Yoon has focused on criticizing the Moon Jae-in government's policy failures, and is expected to join the main opposition People Power Party (PPP) next month.
The PPP has its own contenders, including Rep. Hong Joon-pyo and former four-term lawmaker Yoo Seong-min who ran in the 2017 election. Also, former Board of Audit and Inspection (BAI) Chairman Choe Jae-hyeong is rising as a strong contender, especially after joining the party, July 15, following his resignation from the top auditor post 17 days earlier. The PPP is expected to select its candidate in November.
While the 2017 presidential election was all about replacing former President Park Geun-hye after she had been ousted by a major corruption scandal, and which brought about a power shift to the liberal bloc after 10 years of conservative rule, the 2022 election will be about the economy and fairness, according to political watchers. This means a contest on who can appeal more to the public in their promises to revive the coronavirus-hit economy in a fair manner.
Solutions in post-coronavirus world
Political commentator Choi Young-il said economic indicators such as export volumes under the Moon administration show a relatively high performance compared to other countries in the global economy that has been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic; but people are not feeling any benefits from this in their daily lives.
"The Moon government's pledges for fairness have not been realized in the economic sector," Choi said, citing failed policies on real estate market stabilization and job creation, which have only worsened wealth polarization.
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| A notice that reads "for rent" is hung in the window of an empty store on a street in Seoul's Seodaemun District in this Jan. 26 file photo. Many sectors of Korea's economy have been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. Yonhap |
These failed policies and public disappointment in other areas played a major role in the DPK's crushing defeat by the PPP in the April by-elections for the mayoral posts in the country's two major cities, Seoul and Busan.
But political watchers say it is yet to be seen whether the presidential race will produce a similar result, as this depends on how the candidates appeal to the public with their pledges on how to solve the chronic economic problems of polarization.
"Governor Lee, the ruling bloc's frontrunner, is a smart politician as he talks about not only the value of fairness but also his goal of economic growth at the same time, avoiding being trapped in a populist and leftist framework," Choi said.
One of Lee's key campaign pledges is a universal basic income for all citizens, which has both pros and cons. "The concept of a universal basic income is new here and it may sound like a populist idea; so it would be important for him to persuade the people that his idea for such a basic income is not just about giving out money to all, but about forming win-win relationships among different members of society," said Cha Jae-won, a professor of special affairs at the Catholic University of Pusan.
Choi said other DPK presidential contenders such as former Chairman Lee or former Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun are in a favorable position to gain the trust of voters with their economic promises as they both have experience in administration as prime ministers to Moon.
He added that strong contenders from the opposition such as Yoon or Choe could be less competitive in appealing to the public with regard to the economy as both of them have served in the legal sector for nearly 30 years as a prosecutor and a judge, respectively, and so have not presented a clear vision on economic policies yet.
"There are other opposition contenders who are experts on the economy, such as Yoo Seong-min and former Finance Minister Kim Dong-yeon, but they are not gaining as much support as Yoon and Choe," Choi said.
Winning younger generation's support
Political watchers say another key issue in the presidential race will be fairness.
After the massive corruption scandal involving former President Park, the Moon administration was launched with the slogan of "equality in opportunity, fairness in the process and justice in the result." However, it has been criticized repeatedly for failing to keep these promises, and especially for adopting "double standards" ― being lenient to corruption allegations and illegalities committed by members of their bloc.
In this regard, Yoon and Choe, former aides to Moon and now presidential contenders for the opposition, can maintain a favorable position if they can show an alternative form of leadership, according to political watchers. Yoon quit his post after clashing with the Moon administration over prosecutorial reform, and Choe had also been at odds with the administration over the BAI's audit into the controversial early closure of the Wolsong-1 nuclear reactor to keep Moon's nuclear phase-out pledge.
"While Yoon pledges to realize fairness and justice and Choe avows his principles in the management of state affairs, the two failed to finish their terms as top prosecutor and audit chief guaranteed by the Constitution, over political neutrality. They have to provide a good excuse for their departures to the people," Cha said.
Appealing with messages on fairness and justice will be important to win support from younger voters in their 20s and 30s.
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| The union at Incheon International Airport Corp hold a press conference in front of Cheong Wa Dae, Seoul, to protest the government's unilateral decision to directly hire 1,900 irregular employees as regular workers, in this June 25, 2020 photo. Korea Times file |
The Moon administration has lost support from them especially after controversies emerged in 2019 over former Justice Minister Cho Kuk's alleged use of influence to help his children's academic careers. The government's plan to hire non-regular workers at Incheon International Airport Corp. as regular ones also faced a strong backlash from young jobseekers who claimed this was unfair hiring that would deprive them of the chance to land a job.
In addition, a land speculation scandal involving employees of the state-run Korea Land and Housing Corp. (LH), as well as improper real estate deals involving ruling bloc figures, has caused a loss in support for the DPK especially among young people who feel frustrated at skyrocketing housing prices.
Political watchers say the fairness sought by younger people is related to economic issues as they want fair chances to gain employment and housing.
Political commentator Lee Jong-hoon said economic polarization has been coupled with generational conflict, because the older generations have houses, savings and pensions to receive, while the so-called MZ (Millennials and Generation Z) generation have none of these.
"For them, the older generations are, whether they are conservative or liberal, people with vested rights and interests," Lee said.
"Unlike the older generation who usually have a specific political inclination, younger people are a non-ideological generation. It is said they were liberal (in the 2017 presidential election) but became conservative in the by-elections (by choosing PPP candidates). They do not care about ideology, and move according to their own interests, so they will vote for a candidate who can deal with their issues regardless of whether the candidate is conservative or liberal."
