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| Hong Joon-pyo, center, a presidential contender from the main opposition People Power Party, visits the Seomun Market in Daegu, Friday. Yonhap |
By Kwon Mee-yoo
Hong Joon-pyo, a five-term lawmaker of the main opposition People Power Party (PPP) who announced his second presidential bid three weeks ago, is restructuring the electoral landscape as he is emerging as a strong candidate for the opposition bloc, even beating out Yoon Seok-youl who has been a leading contender, in some opinion polls.
According to a survey conducted by Realmeter on 2,019 adults Sept. 6 and 7, 32.6 percent picked Hong as the optimal presidential candidate from the opposition, 12.4 percentage points up from the last week of August. In the survey, Yoon had 25.8 percent, 2.8 percentage points down during the same period.
Hong also jumped to third in an opinion poll on overall presidential contenders from both the ruling and opposition parties, marking 15.6 percent, following Gyeonggi Governor Lee Jae-myung with 27 percent and Yoon, 24.2 percent. Hong saw a 7.5 percentage point increase, rising as a new power among the presidential hopefuls.
Hong lost the 2017 election against then-liberal candidate Moon Jae-in.
Hong said a "defect-free" candidate can bring a victory for the opposition when he announced his presidential bid in mid-August, targeting the leading opposition presidential contender Yoon, who is facing power abuse and political meddling allegations.
Hong's support rate is high among men in their 20s and 30s as his straightforward remarks touch on sensitive subjects such as the reinstatement of the death penalty, while other candidates remain cautious on such issues.
Hong's popularity has been rising for five consecutive weeks and political experts see his unexpected advance as partially due to "adverse selection," meaning people supporting the liberal ruling Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) pick Hong in open opinion polls to increase the chances of the liberal party candidate winning.
Political commentator Lee Jong-hoon said Hong is reshaping the electoral power structure of the PPP.
"The ruling DPK has one strong contender and one medium contender, and the PPP is also shaping up in the same format due to the support for Hong," Lee said. "Yoon promotes the image of being him a man of principle and the rule of law, but runs the risk of allegations of him being involved with political meddling. On the other hand, Hong is good at debates and offers radical and catchy pledges such as abolishing unions and a revival of the bar exams, although his pledges are not really feasible."
Lee said Hong's upward trend is regardless of the adverse selection.
"There is a controversy over Hong being a beneficiary of adverse selection as some opinion polls include the choices of DPK supporters. However, Hong ranked third in a recent survey on overall presidential hopefuls, not just from the conservative bloc, signaling his strong presence is not just a result of adverse selection," Lee added.
Kim Sung-hoi of the ThinkWhy Lab attributed Hong's increasing popularity to young people in their 20s and 30s turning to Hong, instead of Yoon.
"However, Hong's approval rating is climbing without issues driven by Hong himself. We have to observe the trend for a while as Hong is not leading the game."
