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Seoul advised to build 'sustainable foreign policy platform'
By Kang Seung-woo
South Korea, long sandwiched between the United States and China amid their flaring tensions, finds itself newly cornered into a choice between the two powerhouses, with the fate of the outgoing Moon Jae-in administration's last-ditch peace initiative lying in their hands.
South Korea has been continuing a difficult balancing act, trying to juggle economic ties with China and its much-needed security alliance with the U.S. In addition, given Seoul needs help from both Washington and Beijing to formally declare an end to the Korean War, the intensifying strategic competition between them is further thrusting the South Korean government into a dilemma.
Only three weeks after U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a virtual summit, Nov. 15, Washington has beaten Beijing to the punch.
On Monday (local time), the U.S. announced that it will not send any diplomatic or official representation to the Beijing Winter Olympics in 2022 due to China's ongoing genocide and crimes against humanity in Xinjiang and other human rights abuses ― although its athletes will compete in the quadrennial event.
Despite its official statement that whether to send diplomatic officials to Beijing is a sovereign decision that each country needs to make, the U.S. boycott decision is highly anticipated to weigh on South Korea as its sending of a diplomatic delegation may be seen as turning a blind eye to China's human rights abuses.
In response, the South Korean government is refraining from making an official statement.
"We have no comment on another country's decision," a unification ministry official said, Tuesday.
The foreign ministry also said there had been no request from the U.S. to discuss its boycott.
Additionally, U.S. President Biden will remotely host the Summit for Democracy, Thursday and Friday, during which the diplomatic boycott is expected to be discussed. The U.S. has invited 110 countries, including South Korea and Taiwan, but not China and Russia.
Cheong Wa Dae has yet to announce whether Korea will attend the online summit.
The Chinese government is trying to entice South Korea away from the anti-China campaign by floating the idea of an online summit, where Xi could urge Moon to travel to Beijing during the Olympics to undermine the U.S. boycott and promote the event as an opportunity to build peace, should North Korean leader Kim Jong-un attend the Games.
South Korea is also regarded as the weakest link among the Washington-Seoul-Tokyo security structure to contain China because Beijing is Korea's largest trading partner.
Last week, national security adviser Suh Hoon met with top Chinese diplomat Yang Jiechi in Tianjin and discussed holding the virtual summit in January. Given that the summit is envisaged to take place one month ahead of the Winter Olympics, Moon's possible trip to Beijing during the Games is likely to be high on the agenda.
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| A pedestrian walks past a countdown clock for the Beijing Winter Olympic Games in Beijing, China, Tuesday. Reuters-Yonhap |
Soo Kim, a former CIA analyst now with the Rand Corporation, said sustainability should be the biggest factor in Seoul's decision-making.
"Will a summit with Xi help the Moon government build a sustainable foreign policy platform vis-a-vis several foreign policy issues ― the alliance with the U.S., dealing with the North Korea challenge, and Seoul's alignment between Washington and Beijing? It's unclear," she said.
"There seem to be more pitfalls associated with this decision. It renders uncertainties in the U.S.-ROK alliance even more apparent and it may stir the pot in tensions between Washington and Beijing. The long-term costs far outweigh the very short-term political gains associated with Seoul's conduct."
Experts also say Moon's attendance is speculated to negatively affect South Korea's ongoing talks with the U.S. on the end-of-war declaration.
"I don't think the U.S. decision on the end-of-war declaration was contingent on Seoul's conduct around Beijing," she said.
"But I don't think Moon's attendance at the opening ceremony will help, either. It's likely to make Moon's intentions clearer to the U.S., if it needed further clarification."
