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| Angela Kane, vice president of the International Institute for Peace (IIP) in Vienna, speaks during a session at the 2022 DMZ Forum held at KINTEX in Goyang, Gyeonggi Province, Sept. 16. Courtesy of Gyeonggi Provincial Government |
By Lee Hae-rin
Angela Kane, vice president of the International Institute for Peace (IIP) in Vienna and former U.N. under-secretary-general for management and high representative for disarmament, presented a view about the evolving geopolitical landscape in East Asia that is very different from others.
Refuting the popular belief that a new Cold War-like confrontation between two sides ― South Korea, the United States and Japan on one side and China, Russia and North Korea on the other ― has been in the making after Russia's invasion of Ukraine earlier this year, Kane claims China won't be tempted to make an enemy of the United States or any other countries.
Like other countries, she said, China is driven by trade interests and will refrain from doing anything that may hurt its economic gains in foreign markets.
The German expert visited Korea to join the 2022 DMZ Forum held last Friday in Goyang, Gyeonggi Province. Moon Chung-in, chairman of Sejong Institute think tank, moderated the session in which Kane participated.
Gyeonggi Province, which borders North Korea on the heavily armed demilitarized zone (DMZ), has been hosting the forum since 2019 with support from the Ministry of Unification. This year's two-day event brought experts from Korea and around the world to discuss peace.
During the session, Kane presented her own views of China's rise as the world's second-largest economy and its implications for regional geopolitics.
"When you look at China 10 years ago … China … aligned itself with the Group of 77 and it withheld its positions on many issues," Kane said. She pointed out that China's share of the U.N.'s regular budget has grown dramatically from 2 percent in the early 2000s to 15.25 percent in 2022.
Despite the dramatic changes in its international profile over the past decade, she said China will not be tempted to antagonize other countries because of its trade interests.
China "cannot afford to make too many enemies at this point" because it needs foreign markets and resources from other countries, she claimed. China's economic interest would create room for dialogue among countries, she added.
Kane presented a unique view on North Korea, too.
When asked why North Korea has not responded to South Korea's humanitarian assistance offers, she said North Koreans might have felt their pride would be hurt if the offers were accepted.
In a speech delivered on Aug. 15, President Yoon Suk-yeol unveiled an "audacious initiative," a proposal calling for denuclearization of North Korea in return for massive economic assistance to rebuild the impoverished economy.
When North Korea suffered a belated coronavirus outbreak earlier in May, Yoon offered to send COVID-19 vaccines and other medical supplies. The North again refused to accept any humanitarian assistance from South Korea as well as from the COVAX facility, a global vaccine procurement program.
"Accepting an offer of assistance is basically an admission of weakness," the negotiation expert said, "and I think at this point … Kim Jong-un and his government are not willing to admit to that."
