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| North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, second from right, inspects a new submarine building project in an unidentified location in North Korea, in this photo released July 23, 2019, by the state-controlled Korean Central News Agency. Yonhap |
Silent Shark exercises may expand amid North Korea's growing SLBM threat
By Jung Min-ho
Seoul and Washington have started talks over their anti-submarine drills for next year amid growing security threats from Pyongyang including its evolving submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) technology.
A Navy official told The Korea Times Tuesday that Rear Admiral Lee Soo-yeol, commander of the Submarine Force Command, recently visited Guam (a U.S. island territory in Micronesia), where he met the top officers of the U.S. Seventh Fleet and Submarine Squadron 15 to discuss the details of the biennial exercise known as Silent Shark.
"Issues including how to bolster interoperability were discussed. But details such as the size and the date of the exercise and which anti-submarine warfare assets will take part in it are still undecided," the official said.
Yet the official said it is likely that the size of next year's drills will be bigger than those of the past, given the North heightening tensions with its dozens of missile tests in recent months including its intercontinental ballistic missiles and SLMBs. Intelligence reports suggest it may be on the verge of conducting its first nuclear weapons test since 2017.
The drills, which were introduced in 2007, focus on training the participants for submarine vs. submarine situations in simulated settings and usually involve South Korea's diesel-powered submarines and the U.S.' nuclear-powered ones ― along with maritime patrol jets and warships.
The meeting comes at a time when concerns are rising over the signs that North Korea is making progress in its SLBM technology, which could eventually grow into another serious threat to the U.S. nuclear umbrella.
Last month, North Korea claimed to have launched an SLBM from a reservoir in its latest such test. For many years, the North has tried to acquire the ability to fire nuclear-armed missiles from its submarines, which could complicate the South Korea-U.S. defense strategy that relies on detection capability including the Kill Chain concept, a preemptive strike system against imminent missile threats from the North.
North Korea is also believed to have recently completed a new 3,000-ton submarine capable of carrying three SLBMs, which has caused alarm among South Korean and U.S. military leaders. It already has an estimated 70-90 diesel-powered submarines ― one of the world's largest submarine fleets. But they are mostly aging and capable of only launching torpedoes but not missiles.
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| A submarine-launched ballistic missile is fired in an unidentified location in North Korea, in this photo released Oct. 3, 2019, by the state-controlled Korean Central News Agency. Yonhap |
Experts believe it would take many more years, a great deal of resources and many technological advancements for the heavily sanctioned regime to develop a reliable capability to operate several such submarines.
To counter such underwater threats, South Korea has been carrying out the years-long project of building next-generation diesel-electric attack submarines to replace old ones.
The most critical ability for countering North Korean submarines is the ability to detect and track them, for which South Korea needs support from U.S. satellites and underwater tracking technology, Shin Jong-woo, a senior researcher at the Korea Defense and Security Forum, said.
Nuclear talks between Seoul and Pyongyang have been stalled for more than two years. Tensions have been rising fast this year, with the North carrying out weapons tests at an unprecedented rate and with the South conducting a series of joint military exercises with the U.S.
