By Yi Whan-woo
How should the recent North Korean behavior that mixes provocations with good-will gestures be read, not that it is anything new?
Still, on Oct. 7, a boat trespassed into South Korean waters in the West Sea, followed by anti-aircraft fire at propaganda balloons sent by activists on Oct. 10. There were two violations of the Armistice Agreement over the weekend in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), the four-kilometer buffer separating the two Koreas.These took place after the surprise Oct. 4 visit by a high-level Pyongyang delegation to Incheon.
So the core question is whether they represent an escalation that could lead to an inter-Korean conflict on a bigger scale. It has long been believed that if there is another conflict on the Korean peninsula, it could unexpectedly arise from a small clash.
But for now, experts place a greater emphasis on the scenario that the North is taking a calculated risk, and expect more provocations on a small scale to force the South to hold inter-Korean military talks.
The impoverished regime then will seek to bring economic support from the South in separate talks focusing on inter-Korean cooperation other than military fields, the experts added.
They also emphasized the two Koreas are not likely to engage in a war under "any circumstances."
"I'd say North Korea's series of military provocations are carefully calculated in order to heighten fear of an armed conflict between the two Koreas," said Kang Myung-do, a North Korean studies professor at Kyungmin College.
The two Koreas exchanged gun fire at the military demarcation line (MDL) after North Korean soldiers advanced toward the South on Saturday and Sunday. The MDL is the land border dissecting the Korean Peninsula.
No casualties were reported. But Pyongyang apparently has perplexed Seoul as they took place after the surprise visit by the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's confidants — Hwang Pyong-so, Choe Ryong-hae and Kim Yang-gon — to Incheon. They and South Korean officials agreed to hold inter-Korean talks by the end of this month at the earliest.
The two countries also exchanged machines gun fire on Oct. 10 after the North Korea apparently shot down balloons carrying anti-Pyongyang propaganda leaflets flown by South Korean civil activists in Paju, Gyeonggi Province.
On Oct. 7, the South and North Korean patrol boats exchanged fire after a North Korean naval vessel crossed the North Limit Line (NLL), the de facto maritime border.
"Public concern about military threats will grow in South Korea and calls for military talks are likely to spread. That's where Pyongyang could come in and propose such talks exclusively."
Paik Hak-soon, the director of the Center for North Korean Studies at Sejong Institute, voiced a similar view.
"No inter-Korean talks on the economy and business sectors will be possible under the May 24 Sanctions. North Korea will seek to engage in military talks first," he said.
Effective on May 24, 2010, the punitive sanctions ban all inter-Korean cooperation, including trading activities, except for those within the Gaesong Industrial Complex in North Korea in response to Pyongyang's sinking of the South Korean frigate Cheonan in March of that year.
"North Korea also has been infuriated by Seoul sending airborne leaflets as the messages have been extremely critical of its leaders. It will seek to have the South Korean government ban its people to do so by bringing up the issue at the military meeting."
According to Kang, the regime is making a separate approach in terms of military and economic issues in inter-Korean relations.
"It knows too well that hard-line President Park Geun-hye will not change her North Korean policy that assumes Pyongyang will give up its nuclear programs to receive economic support," he said.
"The North will never give up such weapons of mass destruction, which will be with dealt at the military talks. At the same time, it's desperate to receive financial support from us to rebuild itself.
"By separating the two issues, it will be in a better position to demand us to lift the May 24 measures while maintaining its nuclear weapons."
Both Kang and Paik turned down speculation that repeated armed struggles between the two Koreas could result in a war.
"What North Korea really wants is economic development and there's no chance a war will happen," Paik said.
"North Korea has been spending money to built resort infrastructure, such as a ski resort and a mega-sized water park under the Kim Jong-un regime. The investment was large enough to make bombs if Pyongyang ever considered having a war with us."
Korean Language
국방부 "北, 어제 우리 GP 조준사격…도발적 행위"
'우리 경고사격에 北 공세적 대응…도발책임 전가 명분쌓기 가능성'
'전 전선 북한군 동향 면밀 주시, 추가도발 철저 대비'
국방부는 경기도 파주지역 비무장지대(DMZ) 내 군사분계선(MDL)으로 접근한 북한군을 퇴각시키는 과정에서 19일 발생한 총격전 당시 북한군이 우리 GP(비무장지대 내 소초)를 향해 조준사격을 가했다고 밝혔다.
김민석 국방부 대변인은 20일 정례브리핑에서 '어제 우리 군이 MDL로 접근한 북한군을 향해 경고사격 할 때 탄환이 MDL을 넘어가지 않고 (MDL이남) 우리 측 지역에 떨어지도록 했다'면서 '그러나 북한군은 우리측 GP에 사격을 했으며 GP까지 날아온 것은 (북한군이) 조준사격을 한 것으로 보고 있다'고 말했다.
김 대변인은 '북한군의 이런 행위는 도발적 행위'라고 비난했다.
김 대변인은 이어 북한군이 주말에 MDL 선상에서 계속 도발적 행위를 한 의도에 대해서는 'MDL 상의 푯말이나 표시물의 번호나 위치를 확인하는 정찰활동이거나 민간단체의 전단 살포 등에 대비해 우리 측에 도발의 책임을 전가하려는 명분쌓기용일 가능성도 있다'고 말했다.
김 대변인은 '우리가 경고사격을 하면 북한군은 대체로 그 지역을 벗어났는데 최근에는 우리가 대응사격을 하면 북한군도 대응사격을 한다는 것이 과거와 달라진 것'이라며 '이는 우리 측이 대응사격하면 북한군이 공세적으로 대응하기 위한 준비의 일환일 가능성도 있다'고 밝혔다.
그는 '우리 군은 전 전선에서 북한군의 동향을 면밀히 주시하고 있으며 추가 도발에 철저히 대비하고 있다'면서 '북한은 군사적 긴장을 조성시키는 무모한 군사적 도발과 정전협정 위반행위를 즉각 중단할 것을 엄중하게 경고한다'고 강조했다. (연합뉴스)