| North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has claimed Pyongyang is ready to test-fire an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), but military experts say the test is highly likely to fail as the country's progress in key technologies remains dubious. They say Kim's ICBM threat is an apparent effort to send a message to the new U.S. administration of President Donald Trump. / Graphic by Cho Sang-won |
By Jun Ji-hye
North Korea still has a lot of work to do in developing an operational intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), so the test it threatened to do will almost certainly end in failure, according to military experts.
They said the North seems to have made progress in some technologies related to the intermediate- and long-range missile, such as stage separation, clustering of engines and guidance and control systems, but its progress in reentry vehicle capability and engine performance remain dubious.
The analysis came as North Korean leader Kim Jong-un claimed, in his New Year's Day address, that Pyongyang has entered the final stage of preparations to test-fire an ICBM, in an apparent threat that the North is close to making a nuclear-tipped missile capable of striking targets on the U.S. mainland.
Pyongyang has never flight-tested road-mobile KN-08 or KN-14 ICBMs.
On Jan. 19, the reclusive state reportedly has built two missiles, presumed to be the new ICBMs, and placed them on transport erector launchers (TELs) for the North's first test-firing of ICBMs.
However, Leon Sigal, director of the Northeast Asia Cooperative Security Project at the Social Science Research Council (SSRC) in New York, downplayed the young leader's claim, saying "in the final stages of preparation" may mean the state is not quite ready yet.
"There is no sign yet that it has perfected a reentry vehicle robust enough to resist the heat and pressure of penetrating the atmosphere," he said.
Securing missile reentry technology is the toughest challenge in developing operational middle- and long-range ballistic missiles. As missiles reenter the Earth's atmosphere at Mach 24, the warhead needs to be capable of withstanding temperatures of around 7,000 to 8,000 degrees Celsius.
In March last year, after its simulation test, the reclusive state claimed that it has secured the heat-resistant capability of the long-range missiles. But a South Korean military expert said, asking not to be named, the test environment was far different from that in real ICBM test-firing, given that the test temperature was only about 1,500 degrees Celsius.
"I don't assess that the North has secured reentry vehicle technology," he said.
Terence Roehrig, a professor at the U.S. Naval War College, said it was difficult to know for sure how reliable Kim's claim was, albeit it could be a reliable claim for a future test. But he noted that being willing and able to conduct a test does not mean the test will be successful.
"The record would suggest that an ICBM test will likely have problems," he said. "Though North Korea has improved its missile capabilities through its satellite launches, these have had difficulties."
Referring to last year's tests of the Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBM), he said, "The tests had numerous failures before one that showed some degree of success and the likely ICBMs to be tested, the KN-08 or KN-14 have yet to be flight-tested so that the likelihood of failure in the short-term seems high."
Pyongyang fired a total of eight Musudan missiles between April and October last year, with only one flying some 400 kilometers. Most of the other missiles exploded right after takeoff.
According to military officials in Seoul, the North's ICBM uses engines in the same series as those of the Musudan. They said the fact the only one of the eight tests was successful showed that the North has failed to correct faults in the missile's engines. Engine performance is essential in boosting the missiles, they added.
"Each time North Korea tests, they learn from the attempt and their program continues to move forward," Professor Roehrig said. "But there remain some important question marks for making the entire system operational. North Korea still has a good deal of work to do in developing an ICBM capability, but they are making progress and they will continue trying."
Taking into consideration the North's dubious ICBM capability, military authorities here see the greater possibility for Pyongyang to launch the Musudan instead of the ICBM if it does decide to conduct any provocations in the near future. They said any launch will probably be aimed at mastering know-how linked to the Musudan, including the stability of its engine, as part of efforts to advance its ICBM capability.
"We are closely monitoring any new military activities in North Korea, as it could launch an IRBM at any time if leader Kim Jong-un gives the order," a military official said, asking not to be named.
During a phone call with U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford last week, Seoul's JCS Chairman Gen. Lee Sun-jin cited the North Korean leader's birthday on Feb. 16, Seoul-Washington's joint Key Resolve exercise in March and the North's late founder Kim Il-sung's birthday on April 15 as possible days for the North's provocations.
Message to Trump
The Ministry of National Defense interpreted Kim's ICBM threat as part of the North's efforts to send a message to the new administration of U.S. President Donald Trump, who was inaugurated on Jan. 20.
Referring to the two suspected new ICBMs reported a day before his inauguration, officials raised the possibility that the North intentionally revealed the existence of the new missiles to send a strategic message to the new U.S. administration, which has hinted at carrying out a hard-line policy against the North.
U.S. experts agreed with this view.
"Kim's announcement could have been an effort to see how the Trump administration would respond," Professor Roehrig said.
According to Sigal, it is noteworthy that in the past, after each United Nations Security Council sanctions resolution was passed, the North responded with test-launches and nuclear tests, but it did not do so this time.
"This could be a sign that it is waiting to see whether President Trump meant what he said during his campaign about wanting to negotiate with Pyongyang, as well as the regime change in Seoul," he said. "The statements by Kim Jong-un and the foreign ministry are a reminder of what is at stake if there are no talks."