| Yang Un-chul |
It is believed that North Korea has pursued changes in military structure and strategy based on its own circumstances due to its poor economic reality. Evidently, North Korea has shown clear signs of strengthening asymmetric power in terms of weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear and chemical weapons, missiles and conventional forces, such as the special force and submarines, since the 1990s. Recently, it was revealed that North Korea's asymmetric power buildup has been developing into new aspects such as cyber warfare, electronic warfare and unmanned aerial vehicles.
In this situation, denuclearization of North Korea, which the world is paying attention to, has not found a solution. Fundamentally, the national interests of North Korea and the U.S. are different from the way they are solved. The United States is pleased with the role of the international community in the ongoing economic sanctions, but North Korea has identified the sanctions as the biggest barrier to denuclearization.
| The cover of the book “North Korea Conundrum” |
Regardless of denuclearization, it is anticipated that pressure by the international community will continue over issues such as the violation of human rights, cyber terror, and so on. That puts substantial pressure on North Korea.
In the diplomatic perspective, it is hard to expect North Korea's relations with China to be restored as a full alliance. North Korea may have doubts about the authenticity of China's active participation in economic sanctions against it, but it believes China does not give North Korea enough support.
Pyongyang is always concerned about China's growing influence over the country. Under such circumstances, North Korea must enter a normal state through continuous reforms. North Korea's true leap forward will come when it joins the international economic organization, and eventually North Korea will be transformed into a normal state.
North Korea's conventional weapons, stagnant economy, cyber terrorism and accession to international organizations are difficult problems to solve in the short term. If these difficulties are not resolved, even if North Korea's denuclearization is achieved, it will be difficult for North Korea to change into a normal nation.
North Korea's internal situation seems hard to fathom when the nuclear issue is an international issue. North Korea's official economy intends to increase the mobilization of internal resources. And its foreign currency earning business has reached its limit due to the economic sanctions. For that, Kim Jong-un is driving North Koreans to desperation to obedience. However, the economic performance is less than expected. On the other hand, the private market has grown rapidly.
As history bears witness, a market evolves against all odds. The pressure from the bottom of society to provide reform measures continues to increase as the capacity of the North Korean regime decreases. With the slow paradigm shift of North Korean people and the elites, the foundation to implement a market economy will certainly spread economic rent to the people. At the same time, Kim is providing economic rent to his followers as he progresses North Korean economic reforms, such as reforming the corporate law, allowing market activities and localization by substituting imports.
However, if economic freedoms such as individual property ownership and free international trade are not allowed, the economic reforms in North Korea will have a negative effect. Consequently, diminishing economic rent and privileges will eventually provoke power struggles among Kim's core supporting groups to obtain more rent. Then, North Korea's political and military power will weaken in the long run. This will be the key parameter that determines Kim Jong-un's power stability in the near future.
| The table of contents for “North Korea Conundrum.” |
Dr. Yang Un-chul is the director of the department of Unification Strategy Studies at the Sejong Institute. He has done extensive studies on the North Korean economy since he started his research career at the institute. He was the vice president, director of training and education program for high-ranking government officials at the institute. He is currently serving as president in the Association of North Korean Studies. His recent English studies include “Power Struggle for Seeking Privileges and Rents in North Korea,” “Whither North Korea” (2018), and “North Korea Conundrum” (2019).