| North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and U.S. President Donald Trump talk in the garden of the Metropole hotel during the second North Korea-U.S. summit in Hanoi, Vietnam, late February. Reuters-Yonhap |
By Kim Yoo-chul
| Kelsey Davenport |
"Unlike a comprehensive big deal, a step-by-step approach builds confidence in the (denuclearization) process and, if structured correctly, demonstrates to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un that the survival of North Korea isn't dependent on a nuclear arsenal," Kelsey Davenport, director for Washington-based Arms Control Association (ACA), said.
The failure of the Hanoi summit in late February was "disappointing" but was not a disaster, as both the United States and the North decided the meeting was useful and remained committed to pursuing diplomacy, the director said.
"The window of opportunity for negotiations, however, will not remain open indefinitely. Washington has a unique opportunity to reduce the risk posed by North Korea's nuclear weapons program and to verifiably roll it back. Doing so, however, will require Trump to pursue reciprocal, step-by-step actions toward denuclearization and a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula," she said.
Davenport stressed North Korea's earlier demand to get some economic sanctions relief in exchange for dismantling its Yongbyon nuclear facility was "evidence" that Pyongyang was "primarily focused" on getting some sanctions lifted early in the process and also indicates space to pursue a "limited deal."
She said the Trump administration has "conditioned sanctions relief" on completion of the North's denuclearization process.
"The United States appears focused on reaching a specific agreement with North Korea on the goals of the negotiating process, including a shared definition of denuclearization, and then pursuing incremental steps that roll back the North's nuclear weapons programs," according to the director, adding Trump has not yet publicly provided a detailed description of the U.S. proposal.
Davenport addressed other possible key values of an "action-for-action" or "step-by-step" approach in a report co-authored with ACA research assistant Alicia Sanders-Zakre.
"A step-by-step process stands a better chance for maintaining continuity and momentum between changing administrations, whereas if negotiators fail to reach a comprehensive deal, talks may falter in the transition to a new administration," they wrote.
The U.S. presidential election in 2020 and the South Korean presidential election in 2022 may narrow the window of opportunity to advance the nuclear diplomacy process.
IAEA inspection
Davenport said the Trump administration should push for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the top U.N. nuclear watchdog, to be allowed to verify the dismantlement of the North's nuclear facilities. This would increase transparency and legitimacy and set a precedent for similar inspections in the future.
"If an agreement were to be reached for North Korea to scrap its Yongbyon facilities, completely, experts assess it would effectively end its weapons-grade plutonium production and significantly curb but likely not end its uranium enrichment as Pyongyang has built other covert uranium enrichment sites."
These initial steps, if taken, would build confidence in the diplomatic process, serve as an important test for Kim's intentions and help ensure that the North could not expand its arsenal while the longer-term talks and denuclearization steps continue, the director said.
"The Trump administration could offer limited relief from select United States and U.N. measures. As part of that package, the United States could include waivers for inter-Korean projects that President Moon Jae-in has prioritized but are stalled due to United States sanctions," according to the organization.
But she said President Moon Jae-in's drive for "personal diplomacy or top-down rapprochement" in dealing with the North Korean nuclear issue needs to be paused because working-level teams have to be employed role to narrow differences.
"Establishing an effective process for negotiations going forward must include talks from the head-of-state level to the working-level negotiating teams as the details of a deal to advance peace building and denuclearization on the peninsula are too complex for both Trump and Kim to resolve themselves," the analysts added.
The two analysts said that negotiating teams from Washington and Pyongyang should meet often to reach a consensus on a step-for-step deal. "Having a detailed roadmap will help North Korea ensure that the United States retains sufficient leverage to incentivize the North to continue taking steps toward denuclearization."