Korea's 'vaccine swap' options may require diplomatic reward

Work to unload 250,000 doses of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine from a UPS cargo plane is under way at Incheon International Airport, Wednesday. Yonhap

'Vaccine cooperation would take place in context of stronger Korea-U.S. alliance'

By Kang Seung-woo

As a "swap" deal with the United States is emerging as a temporary fix to address Korea's shortage of COVID-19 vaccine, Seoul will find itself in the position of looking at how to return Washington's favor diplomatically, according to diplomatic observers, Thursday.

With a mere 3.41 percent of the country's 52 million population having received shots since the government began its vaccination campaign Feb. 26, due to the shortage, Korea has turned to its long-time ally for help as the U.S. has enough vaccine for every single American, according to President Joseph Biden.

The possibility of such a swap was made public Tuesday when Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong disclosed the ongoing negotiations between the two sides. Under the envisioned deal, the U.S. would give Korea vaccines from its stockpile that would be paid back later.

According to the foreign ministry, the U.S. administration has yet to approve the request due to its goal of first achieving herd immunity. In addition, President Biden said Wednesday (local time) inoculation of American's was the priority, although he added that the U.S. intended to help doses get to other countries.

The U.S. reportedly has a stockpile of AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine expected to reach 30 million doses by the end of the month, and has already provided 2.5 million doses of this to Mexico and 1.5 million to Canada in the form of "loans."

"We've done a little bit of that already. We're looking at what is going to be done with some of the vaccines that we are not using," Biden said after a half-hour telephone call with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

"We're going to make sure they are safe to be sent. And we hope to be able to be of some help and value to countries around the world."

Some experts here believe that the Biden administration will eventually endorse supplying Korea with the vaccine if the Moon Jae-in administration shows its value as a key ally focused on "comprehensively" strengthening their alliance.

"I think vaccine cooperation between Korea and the U.S. will take place in the context of a stronger Korea-U.S. alliance," said Shin Beom-chul, director of the Center for Diplomacy and Security at the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy.

"If Korea increases its efforts toward a comprehensively stronger alliance ― whether these are in regard to China issues or in advanced technical cooperation ― the U.S. is likely to view this positively and do Korea a favor."

The foreign minister also told a forum, Wednesday, that there were many areas in which the two countries can cooperate, not only at the government level but in the private sector, such as the semiconductor and electric vehicle battery sectors that the U.S. is interested in, and in which Korean companies have an edge.

"As a result, Korea would be able to incentivize the U.S. executive branch, a key presence in U.S. decision making, as evidenced by Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga who had a phone call with the Pfizer CEO following his summit with Biden last week and secured enough vaccines for all Japanese people to get a shot by September," Shin said.

Since the inauguration of the Biden administration, the Suga Cabinet has been a strong advocate of the U.S. policy toward China, focused on gathering allies to counter Beijing, compared with Korea's reluctance to take a side in the Washington-Beijing rivalry due to China being Seoul's largest-trading partner.

U.S. President Joe Biden speaks in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building in Washington, D.C., Wednesday. Biden announced that the U.S. will achieve its goal on Thursday of giving 200 million vaccine shots in his first 100 days in office, while pivoting to a new phase of the campaign by urging businesses to make vaccination as accessible as possible. UPI-Yonhap

Kim Yeoul-soo, chief of the Security Strategy Office at the Korea Institute for Military Affairs, believes that U.S. demands would go beyond technical cooperation.

"Although there is speculation that the government can use a $17-billion (19 trillion won) expansion of Samsung Electronics' chip-making facility in the U.S. as a bargaining chip for the vaccine swap, I do not believe that the U.S.'s demands will stop there," Kim said.

The speculation comes after Biden invited top executive officers of 19 global firms, including Samsung, to a virtual meeting, last week, to discuss ways to address the ongoing shortage of semiconductors.

"Whether the U.S. will supply vaccines will be decided by Korea's diplomatic rewards whose core issue would boil down to Korea's participation in the Quad Plus," Kim added.

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) is a four-way strategic forum aimed at containing China and is comprised of Australia, India, Japan and the U.S. Washington wants to develop it into an Asian version of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) by inviting New Zealand, Vietnam and Korea into a so-called Quad Plus.

The experts advised that the Korean government should remain flexible on the Quad.

"The Quad is a comprehensive mechanism that also focuses on a variety of issues including the economy and public healthcare as well as diplomatic issues, as evidenced by its first summit in March where the leaders discussed chips," Kim said.

"It is important what position the government will take on the Quad."

Shin said, "Rather than joining the Quad immediately, if we take a flexible approach to the Quad, such as participating as an observer or becoming a member after the Quad Plus is formed, such a move will be conducive to fortifying the Korea-U.S. alliance and eventually receiving vaccine cooperation from the U.S."

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