By Kang Seung-woo
Washington is expected to move to facilitate an improvement in relations between Seoul and Tokyo, amid the mounting importance of trilateral cooperation between South Korea, Japan and the United States in dealing with issues involving North Korea as well as China, according to diplomatic observers.
Currently, bilateral ties between South Korea and Japan have slumped to their worst level in years over wartime history issues, leaving little room for the Biden administration to take advantage of the three-way alliance to pursue U.S. security policy in the Indo-Pacific region.
“The Biden administration has clearly signaled the importance of trilateral security cooperation between the U.S., Japan and South Korea, as part of its broader security policy in the Indo-Pacific region. They are looking for opportunities to bring the leadership of Japan and South Korea together with the U.S. to focus on shared security interests, most importantly in dealing with North Korea,” said Daniel Sneider, a lecturer of international policy at Stanford University.
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University, also said, “The Biden administration will continue publicly hosting three-way meetings while privately encouraging (the) allies to compromise and reconcile in the interest of strategically valuable trilateral cooperation.
“Some strategists in Seoul believed that avoiding trilateralism with Washington and Tokyo would make Pyongyang and Beijing more cooperative, but this has been shown to be false. Greater trilateral coordination would strengthen South Korea's diplomatic position and contribute to regional security,” he added.
The DNA of the Obama administration, which focused on normalizing bilateral ties between its key Asian allies, is being reactivated, experts said. Biden himself served as Obama's vice president for eight years.
“The Biden administration will emulate the Obama administration's approach of working behind the scenes to facilitate an improvement in Korean-Japanese relations,” said Bruce Klingner, a former CIA analyst and senior researcher at the Heritage Foundation.
“Many of the same officials who assisted in the comfort women agreement and organizing a bilateral meeting between Shinzo Abe and Park Geun-hye are back in the Biden administration. The U.S. will avoid a public mediator role as well as appearing to take sides between our two critically important northeast Asian allies.”
In 2015, the Abe and Park administrations announced a “final and irreversible” resolution of Japan's wartime sex slavery issue, according to which Japan would provid 1 billion yen to set up a foundation dedicated to supporting the victims. The deal, however, has been criticized for not reflecting the opinions of the victims, and the foundation was disbanded in 2019 under the succeeding Moon Jae-in government.
Sneider also said this was similar to the approach taken by the Obama administration.
“For example, President Obama held a trilateral meeting with the [South] Korean and Japanese leaders in 2014 on the sidelines of the Nuclear Security Summit. Personally I think it is necessary to address the bilateral issues of wartime history, but that requires a willingness on the part of President Moon Jae-in and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga to make concessions and neither leader seems prepared to do so,” he said.
The South Korean government has strongly protested Japan's decision to dump contaminated water from the destroyed Fukushima nuclear power plant into the Pacific Ocean. The administration said the decision was made without full consultation with neighboring countries and without transparent disclosure of relevant information, raising speculation that Seoul's opposition may prevent Washington from mediating the diplomatic dispute.
However, experts added that the government here needs to approach the issue scientifically and not politically, given that it is a technical issue as with vaccine safety.
“Quite possible (to negatively affect the U.S.' mediation). But this should be a question of science. If not the IAEA, then perhaps scientists from Japan, South Korea, China and the U.S. might examine the issue to determine whether the water is indeed hazardous,” said Robert Manning, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
Easley said, “As with vaccine safety, the disposing of nuclear waste water is a technical issue. Rather than be driven by emotional and politically-motivated arguments, policymakers should listen to relevant scientists, transparently share information with the public, and cooperate according to international standards.”
Sneider also said the South Korean government's eagerness to jump on the Fukushima decision is not helpful when it comes to improving relations and trilateral cooperation.
| U.S. President Joe Biden, right, and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga hold a press conference at the White House, April 16. They concurred on the importance of trilateral cooperation that includes South Korea in dealing with issues involving North Korea and China. Yonhap |
With the U.S. government and the IAEA endorsing Tokyo's water discharge, speculation is mounting here that the Biden administration is leaning toward Japan over South Korea given that the Suga Cabinet is fully supporting the U.S. government's anti-Beijing policy, compared to Seoul's reluctance to take a side in the U.S.-Sino rivalry due to China being its largest-trading partner.
However, the American pundits believe that this is far-fetched conjecture, saying it is not a matter of one over the other.
“Both Japan and South Korea often perceive the U.S. as leaning toward one side or the other, even at the same time. The reality is that the U.S. has been frustrated with both allies for taking actions that exacerbated existing tensions,” Klingner said.
“Washington is seeking to focus attention on the threats of this millennium that all three countries face.”
Manning also said, “Both alliances are important to peace and stability in Northeast Asia. However, Japan is key to the U.S. ability to project force globally. But I don't think it is one over the other. The U.S.'s China policy is still a work in progress. It is on a continued tit-for-tat downward cycle. The current state of affairs is not sustainable, and over time, whether through crisis or diplomacy, is likely to evolve toward a more stable competitive coexistence.”
Sneider said it is a matter of local politics in both countries.
“This is not an issue of the U.S. favoring Japan over Korea. I don't think any American policymaker thinks in those kind of zero-sum terms ― that is a disease of Korean and Japanese politicians who are constantly measuring things in that framework,” he said.