The blunt truth is that Korea would never be able to achieve its decarbonization goals without nuclear power, which now accounts for 30 percent of the country's electricity generation.
President Moon had pledged last year that up to 70 percent of Korea's power would be provided by renewables, including solar and wind power, by 2050, up from 7 percent now. In the meantime, Korea would also rely on liquefied natural gas and carbon capture technology to cover the energy gap caused by the shutdown of nuclear reactors. This target was part of an ambitious plan to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. But critics warned that this goal was probably unfeasible and would lead to soaring electricity costs.
Under Moon's plan, the number of nuclear plants in operation would be cut from 24 to 17 by 2034, which would reduce the amount of nuclear-generated electricity to 24 percent of the total power output from the current 30 percent.
On the other hand, Yoon has promised that he would maintain at least the current share of nuclear power before in fact increasing it later, while resuming the construction of two nuclear plants that had been suspended in 2017. In contrast, renewables would comprise only 20 percent to 25 percent of the energy mix and fossil fuels 40 percent to 45 percent by 2030.
Yoon's embrace of nuclear power is part of a highly contested but global trend. Amid a contentious political battle, the European Commission, for example, classified nuclear power recently as a "green" energy source. The war in Ukraine then also raised fears about a potential energy crisis and the reliance of Korea and other countries on the foreign producers of fossil fuels, such as oil and natural gas.
Relying on nuclear power could amount to increased energy security. Poland, the Czech Republic and the U.K. are accelerating plans to build more nuclear plants in the wake of the Russian attack, while Belgium postponed plans to phase out nuclear power due to the Ukraine war. Japan is expected to reopen nuclear reactors that were closed in response to the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011.
Korea's adherence to nuclear power would also deliver economic benefits by providing opportunities to increase exports of nuclear technology. Russia is now the world's top nuclear energy exporter. But its invasion of Ukraine is likely to hurt its standing in international markets, particularly those of democratic nations, since Russia has gained a reputation for using energy as a political weapon.
In the meantime, Russia may also have problems in delivering nuclear technology due to international sanctions. This will likely affect its generous financing of nuclear plants, a key selling point. Finland and Turkey are reconsidering the construction of nuclear plants from Russia.
Yoon has already said he would set a goal of Korea exporting 10 nuclear power plants to Eastern Europe and the Middle East by 2030, which he claimed would create 100,000 jobs.
Yoon's push for nuclear exports is expected to include closer cooperation with the United States. Some analysts suggest that Korea and the U.S. could form the core of an alliance among democratic nations, including Canada, Japan, France and the U.K, that would cooperate in providing nuclear technology and financial assistance to future customers against competition from Russia and China.
Cooperation could focus on light-water nuclear reactors and the development of smaller modular reactors (SMRs) that would replace the current generation of large nuclear plants. Demand for smaller nuclear reactors would be suitable for developing countries in Africa, the Middle East and South Asia as they seek clean energy.
Although he championed the reduction of nuclear energy at home, President Moon laid the foundation for cooperation with the U.S. in entering overseas nuclear power markets a year ago. In a meeting with President Joe Biden in May 2021, the two leaders promised "joint participation in nuclear power plant projects" to improve their competitiveness against Russia and China for foreign orders.
The two countries bring complementary strengths, with the U.S. possessing more advanced nuclear technology, while Korea is a leader in manufacturing and constructing reactors.
Nuclear power also forms the centerpiece of plans by Yoon to make Korea a major global "green" nuclear energy power. These plans also include financing the development of smart grids and next-generation energy storage systems.
But the war in Ukraine has also shown that Yoon's push for nuclear power does not come without risks when Korea is a potential conflict zone. In its invasion, Russia temporarily occupied the Chernobyl nuclear complex, the site of one of world's worst nuclear accidents in 1986, as well as shelled Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and attacked a nuclear research center in Kharkiv. These actions threatened the release of radiation from these facilities.
John Burton (johnburtonft@yahoo.com), a former Korea correspondent for the Financial Times, is a Washington, D.C.-based journalist and consultant.