| A surgeon performs heart surgery in an operating room. Korea Times file. |
By Lee Yeon-woo
In the near future, Korea will face a shortage of doctors in several areas of specialties if the supply of doctors remains the same, according to recent research by the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs (KIHASA).
It said 14,334 more doctors will be needed in 2030, which will rise to 27,232 more in 2035.
Physicians, such as pediatricians and neurologists, will be in shortest supply in 2035. The shortages of surgeons, such as orthopedists and obstetricians, will be acute as well. They were followed by anesthesiologists and pathologists (7,450) and general physicians (1,032).
A larger workforce is expected in 2035 only for preventive medicine.
“Except for the department of preventive medicine, every department ― from 2025 to 2030 ― will suffer from shortages of practicing doctors despite rising healthcare demand in the future,” the research said. The KIHASA put together the data based on low birth rates, aging and changes in disease structures.
To meet the balance, KIHASA explained that the workload of a single doctor will be increased by 14.7 percent to meet the demand if the supply of doctors remains the same.
Earlier, KIHASA indicated that medical schools should recruit an additional 1,500 medical students per year ― from 2027 to 2050 ― in its research released in 2020.
Korean medical schools' student enrollment quota has been fixed at 3,058 since 2006 to control the “quality” of medical services. Only a maximum of 3,058 graduates from 40 medical schools across the country can newly enter the medical field each year.
The government tried to increase the number to 4,000 in 2020 but faced a backlash from medical circles, followed by a mass strike. At the time, both bodies agreed to resume discussions after the number of COVID-19 cases stabilized.
As the country gradually lifts COVID-19 measures, discussions are expected to resume shortly.
Health and Welfare Minister Cho Kyoo-hong said it's time to discuss the matter with medical circles, as voices are still being raised asking for larger quotas at medical schools. He pointed out aging, regional disparity and future pandemics as the reasons for the requests.
“Considering the stabilization trend of COVID-19, [the ministry] will actively cooperate with medical circles in the early stages,” he said at a recent press meeting on Dec. 19.