| President Yoon Suk Yeol greets Korean nationals upon his arrival at Blair House in Washington, D.C., Monday (local time). Yoon is scheduled to hold a summit with U.S. President Joe Biden at the White House on Wednesday. Joint Press Corps |
Two nations likely to agree on joint planning, operation of nuclear weapons
By Lee Hyo-jin
Seoul and Washington are likely to agree on carrying out joint planning and joint execution of U.S. nuclear assets, according to defense analysts, Tuesday, which would mark a major upgrade of the U.S. extended deterrence provided to its ally.
According to both governments, President Yoon Suk Yeol and U.S. President Joe Biden will release an additional joint statement on strengthened extended deterrence after their summit at the White House on Wednesday (local time).
Regarding the document, U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said it will send a “very clear and demonstrable signal of the United States' credibility when it comes to its extended deterrence commitments to the Republic of Korea and to the people of Korea.” Republic of Korea is South Korea's official name.
It is the first time in history for the leaders of South Korea and the U.S. to ink separate statements on extended deterrence as an outcome of a summit.
Extended deterrence refers to the U.S. commitment to defend its allies with nuclear and missile capabilities in the event of an attack on them. The Yoon administration sees extended deterrence as the current best practical option for South Korea to deter North Korea's evolving nuclear threats.
“The joint statement is likely to contain information sharing, joint planning and joint execution of U.S. nuclear assets, as President Yoon has mentioned several times prior to his visit to the U.S.,” said Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University.
“Though the document itself may not go into further details on how the two nations will carry out the operation, the statement shows Washington's increased efforts to reassure Seoul of the effectiveness of its extended deterrence.”
| A B-52 bomber, C-17 strategic transport aircraft and F-22 fighter jets of the U.S. Air Force fly over the Korean Peninsula during a joint air drill in South Korea on Dec. 20, 2022. Courtesy of Ministry of National Defense |
The document could include other details such as scaling up combined military exercises involving U.S. strategic assets, as well as upgrading the current vice minister-level talks on nuclear weapons to minister-level meetings held on a regular basis, Park said.
The two countries have so far held three rounds of bilateral Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group (EDSCG) meetings between Korea's vice foreign and defense ministers and their U.S. counterparts.
Shin Jong-woo, a senior researcher at the Korea Defense and Security Forum, a think tank, also expects the joint planning and joint execution of nuclear weapons to be the centerpiece of the soon-to-be-announced joint statement.
“Such a move would be highly meaningful since it is the first time for the U.S. to agree to the South Korean military's participation in the planning and execution of its nuclear weapons. It will be a big step forward in upgrading the extended deterrence,” he said.
However, Shin noted that it remains to be seen to what extent South Korea will be able to take part in managing U.S.-owned nuclear weapons.
The researcher was also skeptical of the possible introduction of a Korean version of NATO's nuclear-sharing pact with the U.S.
“The term 'Korean version of NATO's nuclear sharing agreement' seems ambiguous at this point. But if we are talking about permanent stationing of nuclear assets, that is unlikely to be included in the joint statement,” Shin said, stressing that the U.S. government strongly opposes the spread of nuclear weapons.
Washington's pledge for a strengthened nuclear umbrella comes amid growing skepticism among South Koreans about the U.S. commitment to extended deterrence due to the advancement of Pyongyang's nuclear and missile prowess. The idea that Seoul should develop its own nuclear deterrent has been gaining public support here.
Max Boot, senior fellow at the Council of Foreign Relations (CFR), sees the decision of obtaining nuclear weapons as South Korea's call.
“South Koreans are understandably worried and wonder if they can still count on the United States to defend them if, by doing so, it would put U.S. cities at risk of nuclear annihilation. Koreans are concerned that their country could meet the same fate as Ukraine ― another nonnuclear state attacked by a nuclear-armed neighbor,” read his column published in The Washington Post, Monday.
The researcher further wrote, “Ultimately, it should be South Korea's call. We should refrain from applying heavy-handed pressure and respect whatever decision our democratic ally makes.”