Since South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol took office in May 2022, Seoul has prioritized strengthening its military alliance with the United States. In the wake of a series of meetings between Seoul and Washington, they agreed to deploy the U.S. strategic assets including its nuclear aircraft carrier and nuclear-capable bomber regularly on the Korean Peninsula as a demonstration of the U.S. extended deterrence to South Korea. With the reinvigorated joint military drills of the South and the U.S., those measures appear to have consolidated their joint military capabilities and readiness against the growing aggression of North Korea.
Notwithstanding Seoul and Washington's appeal that their joint military drills are "defensive in nature," Pyongyang has always deemed them as invasion rehearsal to justify its illicit ballistic missile launches and development.
Amid growing tensions on the Korean Peninsula, Seoul's Defense Minister Shin Won-sik repeatedly raised his voice over the necessity of suspending the 9.19 Inter-Korean Military Agreement made during then-South Korean President Moon Jae-in's visit to Pyongyang on Sept. 19, 2018.
Based on this agreement, the two Koreas agreed to halt hostile acts in principle. They also agreed to suspend military drills near the inter-Korean border. Since the breakdown of the nuclear talks between then-U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in 2019, however, Pyongyang violated this agreement relentlessly including the invasion of its unmanned air vehicles to the South's air space in December 2022. According to Shin's remarks on Oct. 27 during a parliamentary audit session, North Korea has fired artillery shells in the western maritime buffer zone about 110 times ― which is a clear violation of the agreement. He also added that the estimated number of the North's violations is close to 3,600 over the past five years.
In this context, Shin has strongly argued that the agreement has weakened the military readiness and capability of the military units stationed near the inter-Korean border, therefore, it needs to suspend the agreement.
From Seoul's perspective, it seems reasonable to suspend the 9.19 Inter-Korean Military Agreement due to the violations of North Korea and its vehement remarks and actions against South Korea. However, what should be highlighted is the position of South Korea in the international community and the implications of the repeated flipping of its policy on North Korea.
Despite a slip in its status from G10 to G13 in world GDP rankings, South Korea is already a middle-power country that has made dramatic economic developments in the past seven decades after the 1950-53 Korean War.
In July 2021, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) raised South Korea's status from a developing economy to a developed economy ― which is the first such case in history.
What this implies is that South Korea should be the one taking a concrete diplomatic approach to North Korea to construct permanent peace and prosperity on the Korean Peninsula. And the way to achieve this is soft-ball diplomacy.
The 9.19 Inter-Korean Military Agreement encompasses the details that could prevent the two Koreas from clashing against each other on the inter-Korean border. Along with other agreements made between the two Koreas or those signed during the multilateral platforms such as the six-party talks, this agreement is clearly beneficial for South Korea in the security dimension considering the economic status between South Korea and North Korea. Simply speaking, the Korea risk generated by security conflicts and military tensions on the Korean Peninsula affects South Korea as the North's economy is already crippled by devastating U.S. and U.N.-led economic sanctions.
Also, considering the dictatorship of the Kim regime in North Korea, the South's flipping of its policy on North Korea after the election cycles, has snowballed the disadvantage of its leverage in inter-Korean talks and its role in the nuclear talks between the U.S. and North Korea. In the past decades, North Korea has explicitly shown its interest in direct negotiations with the U.S. while bypassing South Korea. In order to make its voice more effective and compelling, the policymakers and politicians in South Korea should craft what can be maintained in the long run. Just letting the U.S. reach a deal with Pyongyang without Seoul's presence in the negotiations should not occur.
Lastly, as mentioned earlier, South Korea is a middle-power country whose policy in the international community affects other countries. Its diplomatic position in the international community has advanced in past decades. Thus, Seoul needs to be consistent with its policy on Pyongyang's nuclear threats on the international diplomatic stage, meaning diplomacy centered on dialogue should be what Seoul always needs to prioritize as peace can be shaped by Seoul, not Pyongyang. Showing its devotion to enhancing peace, democracy and freedom, Seoul needs to make sure that its policy on North Korea is a diplomatic issue, not a political issue.
Without diplomacy and dialogue, no permanent peace and prosperity can be constructed on the Korean Peninsula. A "power for power" approach cannot bring peace in the region and cannot be an answer to creating a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula.
Fully complying with the 9.19 Inter-Korean Agreement, Seoul should appeal to the international community that its approach to North Korea is based on diplomacy and is willing to resolve security conflicts on the Korean Peninsula through dialogue with Pyongyang.
Mitch Shin is a young fellow at The Institute for Peace & Diplomacy. Shin was an assistant editor and chief Koreas correspondent for The Diplomat, and a non-resident research fellow at The Institute for Security & Development Policy, Stockholm Korea Center.