North Korean leader Kim Jong-un test-fires small arms, including a 7.62 mm sniper rifle and a 5.56 mm automatic rifle developed by the Academy of Defence Science, Wednesday, in this photo provided by the North's official Korean Central News Agency. Yonhap
North Korea continued its provocations targeting South Korea and the United States this month, diversifying its tactics beyond missile tests to include trash balloons and disruptive broadcasts.
The North test-fired new tactical ballistic missiles, Wednesday, capable of carrying a super-large warhead and modified cruise missiles. This followed the launch of several short-range ballistic missiles on Sept. 12. Additionally, on Sept. 13, Pyongyang released images of its uranium enrichment facility for the first time, showing North Korean leader Kim Jong-un touring the site and calling for the expansion of centrifuges to increase nuclear weapon production.
North Korea continued to send trash-carrying balloons toward South Korea during the Chuseok holiday, bringing the total to 21 instances since late May. These actions are in retaliation against anti-Pyongyang leaflets sent by defector groups in the South.
Pyongyang has also been broadcasting harsh, high-frequency sounds through loudspeakers aimed at South Koreans living in the inter-Korean border area of Incheon — a tactic that Seoul considers unprecedented. This activity, which began in late July, has intensified over the past week, according to military officials. On Thursday, Incheon Metropolitan City reported that approximately 4,600 residents were affected by the noise and plans to seek compensation for the resulting disturbances.
With repeated missile launches and hostile rhetoric toward South Korea, the North Korean leader's aggressive attitude is worrying some experts.
“North Korea revealed its uranium enrichment facility just before the holiday and continues to stage provocations. It appears that its intention is to gain attention ahead of the U.S. presidential election. North Korea's warming relations with Russia are bolstering its confidence in carrying out provocations,” a senior unification ministry official said on condition of anonymity.
Recently, Sergei Shoigu, head of Russia's Security Council, held talks with Kim Jong-un during a visit to Pyongyang. Additionally, North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui visited Moscow, where she met with her Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov.
Regarding the routine use of trash balloons, a unification ministry official noted that Pyongyang considers them an effective way to stir public anxiety in the South while avoiding international backlash, as they are seen as a low-intensity provocation.
“Considering the volume and frequency of the trash balloons, it no longer appears to be a mere tit-for-tat response to South Korean defectors' groups sending leaflets to the North,” the official said.
Balloons presumed to be carrying trash is shown in Hoengseong County, Gangwon Province, in this photo provided by Gangwon Fire Headquarters, Sept. 9. Yonhap
What is the strategic intention behind North Korea's diversified provocations over the past month? There are both internal and external factors behind the latest moves, according to experts.
“From a broader perspective, these provocations align with North Korea's five-year military plan (established at the Workers' Party congress in early 2021) focusing on advancing both nuclear and conventional military capabilities,” Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies, said.
“Kim seems to be using missile tests and trash balloons to induce anxiety and disruption in South Korea and to create a climate of instability and leverage power in future negotiations with the next U.S. administration.”
Yang estimated that North Korea has enough highly enriched uranium for about 50 tactical nuclear weapons.
Hong Min, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said he believes the unprecedented disclosure of the uranium enrichment facility was to intimidate the incoming U.S. administration.
“Pyongyang is showing its hostile stance toward Seoul while pressuring the U.S. to change its North Korea policy. I believe President Yoon Suk Yeol's 8.15 unification doctrine pulled the lever to routinize sending trash balloons, sending a message that it wants to cut off all ties with the South,” Hong said. Pyongyang has long urged Washington to accept it as a nuclear state and is preparing to hold a key parliamentary meeting in October that is expected to amend the country's constitution to define South Korea as the No.1 hostile state and stipulate the country's territorial boundaries, including the western maritime border. These measures are likely to escalate tensions with South Korea.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, center, inspects the test-firing, Wednesday, of Hwasongpho-11-Da-4.5, a new tactical ballistic missile, equipped with a 4.5-ton warhead, in this photo provided by the North's official Korean Central News Agency. Yonhap
Some experts warned that the current situation on the Korean Peninsula is more dangerous than ever.
“South Korea faces increasing uncertainties in the coming months and must prepare to respond to North Korea's escalating hostility, especially as the North revises its constitution to eliminate the concept of unification and redefine borders,” Yang said
“North Korea seems to believe that the so-called new Cold War structure is revived, and Kim believes this power structure provides support to launch offensives against South Korea and the U.S.,” Hong said.
However, the experts said chances are slim for North Korea to conduct a seventh nuclear test because it could anger China. China reacted furiously whenever North Korea conducted a nuclear test.
Experts noted that South Korea and the U.S. need to develop approaches to deter North Korean provocations. As North Korean threats continue to increase, the South Korea-U.S. combined preparedness posture will be strengthened.
“To maintain deterrence against North Korea's growing military threats, South Korea can continue to expand security cooperation with Japan and the U.S, including intelligence sharing, combined defense exercises, and diplomatic coordination,” Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University, said.
Easley added: “Sanctions enforcement will be crucial for raising the costs of Pyongyang's illegal trade with Russia and companies based in China. Perhaps most challenging of all, Seoul needs to bridge the domestic divide between progressives and conservatives over their differing approaches to peaceful unification, a goal the Kim regime has now disavowed, to prepare for future political contingencies on the Korean Peninsula."