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Bilateral relations between South Korea and Russia appear to be going from bad to worse, analysts said Thursday, as Moscow threatens repercussions for Seoul if it becomes involved in the war in Ukraine.
This latest development follows Seoul's warning that it may take phased measures in response to North Korea's deployment of troops in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, which may potentially involve providing offensive weapons to Kyiv.
"We believe that the South Korean authorities should not be playing along with the Kyiv regime," Maria Zakharova, spokesperson for the Russian foreign ministry, said Wednesday (local time).
"They should consider the security consequences of getting involved in the Ukrainian crisis. The Russian Federation will respond to aggressive actions if our citizens are threatened. These measures could be quite tangible."
She expressed hopes that Seoul would be "guided by common sense," dismissing reports of North Korean troop deployment as fake.
The Russian Embassy in Seoul declined to comment further on the issue, stating, "I don't think we have anything to add beyond our spokeswoman's statement."
Zakharova's remarks came just hours after South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) revealed that around 3,000 North Korean soldiers were believed to have been sent to Russia to support its invasion of Ukraine.
During a closed-door meeting with the parliamentary intelligence committee, the NIS estimated that the total number of North Korean troops aiding Russia could reach 10,000 by December, according to lawmakers present at the meeting.
Earlier this week, South Korea's presidential office strongly condemned North Korea for deploying troops to Russia and said it was considering diplomatic, economic and military countermeasures.
Military options could range from providing Ukraine with “defensive weapons” to “offensive weapons,” depending on how the situation evolves, a senior presidential official said.
However, experts caution that Seoul should be careful about supplying lethal aid to Kyiv. Since the war began in February 2022, South Korea has maintained a policy of providing only humanitarian and financial aid to Ukraine, mindful of its relations with Russia.
"It seems that bilateral relations between South Korea and Russia hang in the balance, depending on how both nations respond to this issue. Our primary goal should be to ensure that North Korea-Russia military cooperation, now significantly deepened by the deployment of North Korean troops, does not destabilize the Korean Peninsula further," said Lim Eul-chul, an expert on North Korea at Kyungnam University.
A TV screen at Seoul Station in Seoul shows file images of North Korean soldiers during a news program, Oct. 18. AP-Yonhap
Pyongyang's decision to send troops to support Russia may bring financial compensation to Kim Jong-un's regime, which is suffering due to economic sanctions. But there's more at stake.
The Kim regime could potentially seek advanced military technology from Moscow in exchange for its support. Plus, North Korea's troop deployment also sets a dangerous precedent, as it could open the door to future Russian military involvement in conflicts on the Korean Peninsula.
The Russian lower house of Parliament ratified the comprehensive strategic partnership treaty on Thursday, which was signed by President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in June. The treaty stipulates that one party must provide military aid to the other without delay in the event of armed aggression.
"Through various diplomatic channels, the government should persuade and pressure Russia to realize that any potential benefits from North Korea's troop deployment will be outweighed by the losses they face from severed ties with South Korea," Lim said.
Rep. Kim Joon-hyung of the minor opposition Rebuilding Korea Party also urged a cautious approach. Kim previously served as head of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy.
"The most important issue here is that we are acting as though we are directly involved in the war," the lawmaker said during a radio interview with CBS, Thursday.
"If Donald Trump is elected as the next U.S. president, given his pledge to end the Ukraine war, prematurely providing lethal weapons could deal a fatal blow to South Korea-Russia relations," he said.
Kim also suggested that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who is struggling to gain sufficient support from NATO and the United States, may be eyeing South Korea as a new partner in the ongoing war.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un inspects strategic missile bases at an undisclosed location in North Korea in this photo released by the North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), Wednesday. Yonhap
Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin confirmed that North Korea has deployed troops to Russia, Wednesday, just days after South Korea's intelligence agency raised concerns last Friday.
"We are seeing evidence that North Korean troops have gone to Russia," Austin told reporters in Rome, marking the first official confirmation by a senior U.S. official.
"What exactly they are doing remains to be seen. These are things we need to sort out."
The U.S. defense chief's remarks reflect Washington's cautious stance, as confirmation of North Korean troop involvement is expected to complicate matters for the White House.
Kyiv could intensify its demands for increased Western support. Also, the expansion of inter-Korean tensions to include Russia is not something the Joe Biden administration would want, with the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election less than two weeks away.