In this file photo, US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un talk before a meeting at the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) in the inter-Korean border truce village of Panmunjom, on June 30. Joint Press Corps.
South Korea faces a difficult choice between providing weapons directly to Ukraine and remaining ambivalent about it until U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes office in January, while North Korean troops are being deployed to the Ukrainian front.
Seoul's reluctance likely reflects a growing belief that Trump may seek a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine upon his return to the White House, according to Bruce Klingner, a former CIA analyst and senior research fellow for Northeast Asia at the Heritage Foundation's Asian Studies Center.
"The impact of the U.S. election will affirm President Yoon Suk Yeol's reluctance to risk Russia's ire by providing arms directly to Ukraine. Mr. Trump, Mr. Vance (vice president-elect) and others are less supportive of the U.S. support to Ukraine and more of an advocacy for resolving that crisis," he said during an interview with The Korea Times in Seoul, Thursday.
South Korea, which possesses some of the world's largest stockpiles of artillery shells, has contributed humanitarian aid and indirect military support, such as exporting weapons to Poland and lending 500,000 rounds of 155mm artillery shells to the U.S. This move allows Washington more flexibility in supplying Ukraine with ammunition. However, South Korea has refrained from directly providing arms to Kyiv, citing its longstanding policy of not supplying weapons to countries actively involved in conflict.
"The Republican Party has shown greater reluctance toward the Biden administration's policy of providing large amounts of military support. Many see it as a distraction or a drain on forces and materials that would be needed in a China conflict, which is seen as the big potential existential conflict," Klingner said.
Bruce Klingner, former CIA analyst and senior research fellow for Northeast Asia at the Heritage Foundation's Asian Studies Center
Asked how China may view Pyongyang's growing relationship with Moscow, he said, "I would think they're not pleased with it. It reduces Chinese influence over North Korea and it also runs the risk of dragging China more directly into the Ukraine conflict than it wants to be."
Assessing the North Korea-Russia relationship as "transactional," Klingner pointed out that China would likely avoid being seen as part of a trilateral alliance with Russia and North Korea.
"China is much more linked to the existing world order as the second-largest economy. It relies on its engagement with Europe, the United States and Southeast Asia more than Russia. China is nervous about the potential impact on its banks and businesses if they are sanctioned," he said.
Given the geopolitical tensions, including the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East over the past four years, North Korea has increasingly taken a backseat on the U.S. foreign policy agenda, according to the former CIA analyst.
"The North Korea threat, although it continually grows and gets direr, has sort of slipped on the priority list because others are in actual combat and China is seen by many as the existential threat to the U.S.," Klingner said.
"President Trump is going to want to focus on the economy and domestic issues, but — as it always does — foreign policy will intrude. But the hot spots would always get the attention whether there is fighting," he added.
The North Korea expert shared that a big concern of the Kim Jong-un regime would be "how to control the information" that soldiers bring back home from the war zone. So far, North Korea has kept its troop deployment to Russia a secret from its citizens.
"They may never tell their citizens about it. North Korea probably sees it as military action and think people don't need to know about it. If the number of forces goes above 10,000 or 12,000, they have to be concerned about the contagion of outside influence," Klingner warned.
"Even though a Ukrainian war zone is not exactly paradise, North Korean soldiers would see the difference of life outside of North Korea and realize, as its diplomats do, that they've been told a lie that as bad as things are in North Korea, it's worse in the outside world and that's why Kim Jong-un has tried to curtail even more than his predecessors the information going in and out," he added.