Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un make a toast during a reception at the Mongnangwan Reception House in Pyongyang, June 19. AFP-Yonhap
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un may visit Russia early next year, analysts suggest, as the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has solidified the "blood alliance" between the two nations.
The visit, if it occurs, would be another public display of the growing camaraderie between Kim and Russian President Vladimir Putin. But experts were divided on the timing of Kim's possible visit, as developments in the war in Ukraine could significantly impact the trajectory of the two nations' relationship.
Putin and Kim have held three summits so far, with the latest in Pyongyang in June, during which they signed a landmark military treaty that includes a clause to offer military assistance without delay if either is attacked.
South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) said Wednesday that it is closely monitoring for signs of the North Korean leader's potential visit to Russia. This assessment, shared during a meeting with lawmakers, was based on a meeting between Putin and Choe Son-hui, North Korea's top diplomat, during her visit to Moscow on Nov. 4.
“Putin greeted Choe on a national holiday. We believe the meeting addressed important issues, including a possible visit by Kim Jong-un. It seems likely that both sides discussed more than just pleasantries,” the NIS said, according to lawmakers.
While the spy agency did not specify a timeline, analysts viewed that the visit could coincide with Russia's Defender of the Fatherland Day, which falls on Feb. 23. The annual holiday honors the nation's military forces.
“Defender of the Fatherland Day is celebrated by parades and performances, where Kim could appear alongside Putin to boast their friendship. Also, Feb. 24 marks three years since Russia launched its so-called special military operation in Ukraine. The timing would carry symbolic weight, further solidifying the nations' ‘blood alliance,'” said Doo Jin-ho, a senior analyst at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses.
Members of the Honor Guard march past communist party supporters after a wreath-laying ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, near the Kremlin Wall in Moscow, Feb. 23, 2023, during national celebrations of Defender of the Fatherland Day. AP-Yonhap
According to Doo, the visit could include a bold gesture from the two leaders, such as a joint appearance in Russia's Kursk region on the border with Ukraine, where North Korean troops have been deployed.
“My cautious prediction is that after a meeting in Moscow, Putin and Kim may visit the Kursk region together in a symbolic display of their military partnership in the ‘sacred war,' as described by the North Korean leader,” the analyst said.
South Korean and U.S. authorities estimate that North Korea has deployed around 12,000 troops to the Kursk region, with some reportedly engaged in combat. Neither Moscow nor Pyongyang has confirmed these reports.
A recent increase of high-level exchanges could be another sign that the two nations are preparing for a leaders' summit. Senior Russian and North Korean officials have been meeting on a fairly regular basis.
The North Korean leader met with Russian Minister of Natural Resources and Ecology Alexander Kozlov in Pyongyang, Nov. 18, during which the two sides discussed cooperation in trade, economy and technology. This followed earlier visits by top Russian trade officials in August and a military delegation in July.
The Kremlin did not dismiss speculation about Kim's potential visit to Russia.
"Of course, close neighbors constantly exchange visits at the highest levels," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said in October, in response to reporters' query about a potential summit next year.
The spokesperson also said Russia is developing strong ties with North Korea "in all areas."
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un steps down from his train after crossing the border to Russia at Khasan, about 127 kilometers south of Vladivostok, Sept. 12, 2023, in this photo taken and provided by the Press Office of the Primorsky Krai Region Administration. AP-Yonhap
The timing and exact location of Kim's trip could depend on developments in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, said Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies, as Moscow considers peace talks mediated by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.
According to a Reuters report, Wednesday, Putin has expressed willingness to discuss a cease-fire with Trump, although he opposes major territorial concessions and insists Ukraine should abandon its NATO membership aspirations.
“If Kim's visit occurs before a peace agreement, it would likely take place in the Russian Far East, rather than Moscow. Kim wouldn't risk traveling too far during wartime, as his movements could be tracked. But if a cease-fire is reached, he might make the trip to the capital, marking his first official visit to Moscow," Yang said.
However, if a cease-fire is reached, the Russian leader may not be as willing to meet his North Korean counterpart.
“Once Putin secures what he wants from a peace deal and the war recedes, North Korea may lose its strategic importance to Russia. In that case, Putin could delay any further summits with Kim until the latter half of next year, while Kim may push for an earlier meeting to make sure that Putin keeps his promises,” Yang said.
South Korean officials suspect that the Russian leader may have promised financial and military assistance to the Kim regime in exchange for sending troops to support Russia's efforts.
“It's unclear what Putin has promised, but whether he will keep the agreement after the war ends remains uncertain. The two leaders will likely have very different calculations once the Ukraine war recedes,” Yang added.