Could US-NK talks resume under Trump 2.0?

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un delivers a speech at the opening of an arms equipment exhibition held in Pyongyang, Thursday, in this photo released the following day by the North's official Korean Central News Agency. Yonhap

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un delivers a speech at the opening of an arms equipment exhibition held in Pyongyang, Thursday, in this photo released the following day by the North's official Korean Central News Agency. Yonhap

'Washington-Pyongyang summit may be held sooner than expected,' says N. Korea expert
By Anna J. Park

A North Korea expert stated on Friday that the prospect of U.S.-North Korea dialogue during Donald Trump's second presidency might be closer than ever, despite negative remarks from North Korean leader Kim Jong-un regarding his previous talks with Trump.

According to the Korean Central News Agency, North Korea's official news agency, Friday, Kim issued a message that sounded pessimistic about the country's relationship with the U.S., as he declared that Pyongyang has ultimately confirmed the U.S.' hostile policy toward it during past negotiations with the country.

"We have already explored all possible avenues of negotiation with the U.S. The conclusion we reached is not a willingness to coexist from a superpower, but a firm stance of power and an unchanging, invasive, and hostile policy toward North Korea," Kim said during a speech at the opening ceremony of the arms equipment exhibition held in Pyongyang the previous day.

He referred to his earlier summits with Trump in 2018 and 2019, during the latter's first presidency. He did not mention Trump's win in the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election.

Kim also pointed out that the U.S. is expanding military alliances that share nuclear weapons and deploying strategic assets on the Korean Peninsula to pressure North Korea.

"(The Korean Peninsula) has never faced a situation where it could escalate into the most destructive thermonuclear war as it does now. The overall reality makes us realize, every day and every hour, that the strongest defense power capable of overwhelming the enemy is the only way to safeguard peace and ensure solid stability and development," the North Korean leader emphasized.

At first glance, this statement appears to dismiss the prospect of resuming U.S.-North Korea summit talks or negotiations, particularly in light of speculation about such talks following Trump's reelection.

However, Hong Min, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said that Kim's choice of words indicates conditions for opening dialogue with the U.S.

He specifically highlighted Kim's use of the term "willingness to coexist as a superpower" as a key phrase in the speech.

"The term 'willingness to coexist as a superpower' is completely new," Hong said. "North Korea has rarely referred to the U.S. as a superpower, and combining it with the concept of 'willingness to coexist' is unprecedented," he explained.

Then-U.S. President Donald Trump, left, shakes hands with North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un, following a meeting at the Sofitel Legend Metropole hotel in Hanoi, Vietnam, Feb. 27, 2019. AFP-Yonhap

Then-U.S. President Donald Trump, left, shakes hands with North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un, following a meeting at the Sofitel Legend Metropole hotel in Hanoi, Vietnam, Feb. 27, 2019. AFP-Yonhap

Pyongyang laying out conditions for dialogue

According to Hong, North Korea has traditionally used terms like "multipolarized" or "bloc-oriented" to describe the global order. Referring to the U.S. as a "superpower" marks a notable rhetorical shift, suggesting the North's acknowledgment of U.S. global hegemony. Hong noted that this could reflect Pyongyang's attempt to avoid provoking Trump.

"Coexistence is also a term we've never heard from Kim Jong-un before. The expression of 'willingness to coexist' is very mild, almost as if saying, 'I want to coexist, too; please help make it happen.' It seems like Kim's message is specifically directed at Trump," Hong noted.

He further explained that North Korea's traditional diplomatic rhetoric often comes across as harsh criticism of the other party, but "it actually is a plea for specific actions to address their demands."

Thus, Kim's message is seen as twofold: criticizing the U.S. for its lack of willingness to coexist with a nuclear-armed North Korea, while simultaneously outlining conditions for dialogue.

"Rather than pursuing denuclearization, Kim suggests the U.S. should adopt a new approach to coexistence — one based on arms control and mutual recognition of North Korea's nuclear status. In essence, he is setting the terms for future dialogue between the two nations," Hong explained.

Then-U.S. President Donald Trump, left, and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un talk before a meeting in the Demilitarized Zone in Panmunjeom from the South Korean side, in this photo taken on June 30, 2018. Joint Press Corps

Then-U.S. President Donald Trump, left, and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un talk before a meeting in the Demilitarized Zone in Panmunjeom from the South Korean side, in this photo taken on June 30, 2018. Joint Press Corps

Both Trump and Kim appear to show a willingness for high-level engagement, based on their previous statements.

Randall Schriver, former assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs during the first Trump administration, predicted that Trump would, if he resumes negotiations with Kim, seek agreements across a broader range of issues rather than focusing solely on North Korea's nuclear program.

His remarks came during his keynote speech on challenges facing the South Korea-U.S. alliance at a Hudson Institute seminar in Washington, Thursday (local time).

Schriver, who was deeply involved in the planning of summits between Trump and Kim, said the bilateral talks might not happen on Trump's first day in office or even within the first year, but he believes Trump will seek another meeting with Kim.

However, he noted that the dynamics will be very different from the first term, and Trump now understands that it will be extraordinarily difficult to diplomatically dismantle North Korea's nuclear and strategic weapons programs. As a result, he expected the scope of negotiations to expand significantly.

Hong expected that the bilateral talks might arrive much earlier in the process of resolving the war between Russia and Ukraine.

"The timing of entering a dialogue phase between the U.S. and Russia is key, and the negotiations could progress much faster than expected," the expert said. "While a final agreement may still be far off, the likelihood of entering into a negotiation phase may come much earlier. Given that Trump only has four years in office, he has filled key positions with loyalists who align with his policy goals and secured control of Congress. This strengthens his leadership within the U.S. government, increasing the likelihood of achieving quick results."

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