When will Korean won stop depreciating against US dollar?

A trader works in the dealing room of Hana Bank in central Seoul, Friday. Yonhap

A trader works in the dealing room of Hana Bank in central Seoul, Friday. Yonhap

Weakening Korean currency fuels exodus of foreign investors
By Jun Ji-hye

The Korean won has weakened to levels not seen in 15 years, driven by concerns over prolonged domestic political instability following President Yoon Suk Yeol's brief imposition of martial law on Dec. 3.

During Friday's trading session, the value of the Korean currency against the U.S. dollar soared to over 1,480 won for the first time since March 16, 2009, when it reached 1,488 won during the financial crisis.

The won opened at 1,467.5 against the dollar, up 2.7 won from the previous session, and surged to 1,482.6 won by 11:03 a.m. It closed at 1,467.5 won.

In addition to domestic political uncertainties, the U.S. Federal Reserve's potential adjustment to the pace of interest rate cuts is fueling the strength of the dollar.

This has placed the Korean currency in a challenging position both domestically and internationally, leading to speculation that the exchange rate could rise to the 1,500 won range next year.

"In the first half of next year, the exchange rate is likely to rise further due to U.S. exceptionalism and an escalation of trade disputes during Donald Trump's second term," Hana Securities analysts Jeon Gyu-yeon and Kim Hyeong-kyun said in their report.

"The trajectory of next year's exchange rate will depend on the starting point of the rate just before Trump's inauguration. If the exchange rate fails to stabilize, it may be necessary to consider the possibility of it reaching the 1,500 won range next year."

The depreciation of the won is amplifying foreign exchange losses, which in turn is accelerating the outflow of foreign investors.

Yuanta Securities analyst Kang Dae-seok pointed out that foreign investors turned net sellers in the KOSPI for five consecutive months, noting that the sharp weakening of the won is creating an unstable market environment.

However, the analyst recommended focusing on developing investment strategies that capitalize on the depreciating won, rather than relying solely on pessimism, noting that several sectors were exceptions to the foreign selling trend.

Kang said that despite the trend of net selling by foreign investors, there have been net buyers in sectors such as internet and gaming as well as software, utilities, media and education, among others.

"Among the top 10 sectors with the strongest net buying by foreign investors, eight have maintained or seen upward adjustments in profitability expectations this month, despite domestic uncertainties," he said.

"Rather than focusing on the pessimism surrounding the exchange rate, attention should be directed toward where market interest, including that of foreign investors, is shifting."

He added that while domestic political uncertainties are undoubtedly a factor influencing the exchange rate, the weakness of the Korean won is not considered particularly severe when compared to the exchange rates of China and Japan, which are highly correlated.

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