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President Moon Jae-in will visit Chengdu, China, in late December for trilateral talks with Chinese and Japanese leaders. After that, Moon may travel to Beijing for a separate summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Hopes are high here that Moon's trip will provide a turning point for Seoul-Beijing ties, which have remained soured since the deployment of a U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in South Korea in 2017.
High on the agenda may be restoring their "strategic cooperative partnership," and the scrapping of economic retaliatory measures China "imposed" on the South over the THAAD installation. Moon has implemented the so-called "Three-No" policy ― no deployment of additional THAAD units, no participation in a U.S.-led global missile defense program and no pursuit of a trilateral military alliance with the U.S. and Japan.
Moon's "pivot to China" may make Washington uneasy. For Moon, however, thawing ties with Beijing will be an opportunity to break Seoul's diplomatic deadlock with Pyongyang. Likewise, embracing South Korea is necessary for Xi amid his country's growing regional rivalry with the U.S.
Nevertheless, the THAAD issue can remain as a stumbling block in the bilateral relations. During a trip to Seoul in early December, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said the biggest threat the world faces is "unilateralism that destroys the global order, and hegemonic acts that challenge the rules of international relations," in a purported swipe at the U.S. The ostensible purpose of THAAD was to defend the South from North Korean missiles, but it has become evident that it is part of a broader U.S. regional strategy aimed at China. From Beijing's perspective, the THAAD deployment damaged its security interests. And it is partly true that the THAAD deployment ― as well as the signing of the General Security of Military Information Agreement with Japan ― were results of the unstable political situation in the South.
Looking back when the system was brought to South Korea in 2017, many bizarre things happened.
Key elements of the anti-missile system, including the AN/TPY-2 X-Band radar and mobile launchers, were brought to the site in Seongju, North Gyeongsang Province, in late April in a sudden overnight operation. They were transported only six days after the U.S. Forces Korea secured the land from the government and even without due procedures, such as an environmental study.
More importantly, it was only about two weeks ahead of a snap election to choose the country's new leader with the highest office vacant following the impeachment of former President Park Geun-hye.
It is quite natural to wonder why such a quick deployment was needed. There was speculation that both governments ignored due procedures and took advantage of public attention being diverted by the election to install the system quickly. We know what happened thereafter. China took economic retaliatory measures against South Korea, and while the South was bearing the brunt of the THAAD deployment, the U.S. did nothing to stop China.
Truly, resolving the THAAD dispute is a sentimental issue. What makes it more daunting and complicated is the growing rivalry between the U.S. and China. It can be said that the issue represents South Korea's difficulty in balancing its diplomatic standing between the two superpowers amid signs that the alliance with the U.S. is being compromised.
So how China will treat President Moon during the upcoming visit will be a significant measurement of Beijing's future strategy toward Seoul.
The writer (jj@koreatimes.co.kr) is an editorial writer of The Korea Times.
