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Due to the coronavirus pandemic, both Republican and Democratic parties will hold virtual conventions to nominate their candidates and to hear their acceptance speeches online. This change will not favor one candidate or the other. On the other hand, voting by mail, which may affect voter participation, will be carried out by most states. As of this writing, 37 states are in the process of collating absentee votes, also done by mail.
Trump warns of potential fraud in the course of mailing ballots. Democrats argue that fear of the pandemic justifies the vote by mail to guarantee voters' rights. At one point, Trump has even toyed with a notion of postponing the election. That did not fly. There is concern the election may end up in the courts.
For Trump, an "October surprise" may come with the advent of a COVID-19 vaccine that he would politicize to his advantage. Biden is ahead in polls across the country, but largely due to Trump's failure in handling the pandemic and the subsequent decline of the economy. Biden is a known stock for decades. He does not excite the voters as a dynamic or charismatic leader.
Kim Jong-un would prefer Trump to Biden to make a deal with. However, he wants to prepare for Biden as well, particularly with the prospect of a Biden presidency looming large. So he is waiting. Last November, the North called Biden "a rabid dog to beat to death" after Biden called Kim a "tyrant," while criticizing Trump's meeting with Kim.
Kim may feel comfortable with Trump, especially after the departure of John Bolton from the White House. Kim may wish that Trump, if reelected, would make a deal that will allow him to keep a minimum level of his nuclear arsenal. On July 27, Kim said, "Thanks to our reliable and effective self-defense nuclear deterrence, the word war would no longer exist on this land."
He calculates that sanctions will be lifted and relations with Washington will improve to assure the security of his regime and help develop the economy of his country. Only if he dismantles most of its nuclear weapons and long-range missiles.
On South Korea, a second Trump administration is likely to impose more pressure to strain its alliance with Washington. Trump will keep demanding a larger share of the cost of defense for the South. It is possible to reduce or withdraw U.S. troops from South Korea, depending on how Seoul responds to U.S. pressure on burden sharing, trade imbalances, and the South's support for a new confrontational U.S. strategy against China.
If Biden is elected, the U.S. will strengthen its ties with South Korea and its other allies in the region, according to the 2020 Democratic Platform (Draft). The Platform continues, "Together with our allies ― and through diplomacy with North Korea ― we will constrain and contain the threat posed by North Korea's nuclear program…. We will build a sustained, coordinated diplomatic campaign to advance the longer-term goal of denuclearization."
Biden's team understands denuclearization is a long haul. Biden will work closely with Seoul to contain the North Korean threat first. He understands that China's cooperation would be an essential part of an approach to the resolution of the North Korean issue. He is yet to announce a detailed plan on the North.
In hindsight, the Obama administration, for which Biden was vice president, wasted eight years, trenched in its "strategic patience." Obama's North Korea policy was a "three-prong approach of deterrence, sanctions and dialogue." It produced one agreement called the Leap Day agreement of Feb 2012, which was abrogated shortly afterwards.
In Washington, a transfer of administrations with key officials confirmed normally takes six to eight months. President Biden will not be ready on day one to tackle the North Korean issue. Biden has said he will not meet with Kim without preconditions. He will discard Trump's "top down diplomacy" and resume lower level negotiations with North Korea.
Whoever wins the next U.S. presidency, the COVID-19 that changes everything will be here at least another year according to scientists, and the two Koreas will face major challenges from shifting U.S. interest and strategy in the constantly changing environment of the region.
Tong Kim (tong.kim8@yahoo.com) is a visiting professor with the University of North Korean Studies, a visiting scholar with Korea University, a fellow at the Institute for Corean-American Studies, and a columnist for The Korea Times.
