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| A sculpture entitled 'We are one' is displayed at a park in Paju City, Sept. 18, ahead of the second anniversary of the Pyongyang Declaration. Yonhap |
By Do Je-hae
Two years ago on Sept. 19, the leaders of the two Koreas signed the Pyongyang Joint Declaration that included measures to reduce military tension on the Korean Peninsula and boost cooperation in various areas.
The declaration was the outcome of the third summit between President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un during an eventful year in inter-Korean relations, starting with a visit to South Korea by a high-level delegation led by Kim's sister Yo-jong during the 2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympic Games earlier in the year.
The second year anniversary of the declaration comes amid a deadlock in both inter-Korean relations and the denuclearization talks between the U.S. and North Korea.
Although Pyongyang has made no mention of the anniversary, Seoul is eyeing it as an occasion to renew momentum for inter-Korean cooperation. In this regard, speculation has been rising for weeks that President Moon could make some proposals regarding the North during his upcoming online speech at the United Nations General Assembly to be held next week.
Cheong Wa Dae announced earlier this week that Moon will give a speech at the U.N. General Assembly focusing on the need for global solidarity and cooperation in tackling the COVID-19 crisis. But he is expected to devote part of the speech to the situation on the Korean Peninsula.
"The President will seek the support of the international community and interest in our government's efforts for peace on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia," presidential spokesman Kang Min-seok said during a briefing, Sept. 17.
Reviving momentum
As time is running out on Moon's presidency, the U.N. speech is expected to be one of the last public occasions for the South Korean leader to make any big gesture toward the North.
"As Moon's mid-term has already passed, it is not the time to announce new proposals," Hong Min, director of North Korea division at the Korea Institute for National Unification, told The Korea Times. "It would be better to focus on what is most realistic and acceptable from the perspective of the North Koreans."
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| North Korean soldiers observe the South Korean side through telescopes during Unification Minister Lee In-young's visit to the true village of Panmunjeon, Sept. 16, ahead of the second anniversary of the Sept. 19 Pyongyang Declaration. Joint Press Corps/Yonhap |
The government has previously mentioned cooperation in quarantine and tourism projects, but Pyongyang has shown no interest in these.
The North Korean leader ordered that no "outside aid" would be allowed to deal with the flood damage last month. Prior to this Pyongyang demolished an inter-Korean liaison office in Gaeseong, a historic symbol from the first Moon-Kim summit in April 2018.
Concerns are rising that any move from the South will be ignored for the time being as North Korea awaits the results of the U.S. presidential election in November before making the next move regarding talks with the U.S. Experts predict very different scenarios following the election, making North Korea's future course of action highly unpredictable.
"If Donald Trump were to win, I would first suspect a shakeup of his core national security team ― with the possible departures of Mike Pompeo, Robert C. O'Brien and others ― could signal a change in policy and focus for the second term," Harry Kazianis, a senior director at the Center for the National Interest, a Washington, D.C.-based national security think tank, told The Korea Times.
"One could see the rise of Stephen Biegun as the new secretary of state, who would clearly champion a much more restrained, realistic and deal-orientated approach to North Korea. If that were all to happen, Trump could very well try to take the Hanoi Agreement that was on offer ― liaison offices, end of war declaration and sanctions relief for a big first step toward denuclearization ― as the framework for a deal instead of renegotiating everything all over again," he said.
"If Joe Biden were to win, the most likely course would be a two month policy review where nothing happens on North Korea until March or April 2021 ― with the North Koreans becoming enraged and testing long-range missiles and nuclear weapons as a show of strength," Kazianis said.
The presidential office has shunned going into specifics about what the President may say with regard to North Korea and the stalled denuclearization talks during the upcoming speech.
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| North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, second from right, inspects the typhoon-hit South Hwanghae Province, Aug. 28. Yonhap |
Moon has made it clear that he will not let up on his "peace process" and engagement with North Korea. In particular, he has stressed since the beginning of the year that he will actively implement his engagement policy, despite concerns from the U.S. His resolve to make visible progress before it's too late is evident in the recent reshuffle of his diplomatic and national security lineup, filling posts with his most seasoned negotiators on North Korea.
"Tomorrow is the second anniversary of the Sept. 19 Pyongyang Joint Declaration. In 2018, I declared to the 80 million Korean people and the world that I would move toward peace on the Korean Peninsula with Chairman Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang," Moon said during a meeting with Buddhist leaders at Cheong Wa Dae, Sept. 18. "If we don't give up hope on meetings and dialogue, we will certainly be able to take the path of peace and unification."
Reality of NK diplomacy
But there have been lingering concerns that Moon's rush for inter-Korean relations to facilitate U.S.-North Korea relations is bound to be limited by the reality of North Korea's diplomatic strategy. "North Korea's focus is on improving relations with the U.S.," Hong said. "They view inter-Korean relations as not an independent variable, but subordinate to the U.S.-North Korea relations and North Korea-China relations."
The presidential office nonetheless is still set on turning a crisis in into opportunity, building on experiences of inter-Korean summitry which played an important role in arranging the U.S.-North Korea summit in Singapore.
"Although currently in a stalemate, peace on the Korean Peninsula is part of the spirit of the times, and the government will not stop in its efforts for a peace process on the Korean Peninsula," a senior presidential aide told reporters.
"After the PyeongChang Winter Olympics, our government started summit diplomacy. The first inter-Korean summit under this administration on April 27, 2018, the Korea-U.S. summit on May 22, and the second inter-Korean summit on May 26, 2018 put the peace process on track. As these efforts led to the June 12 U.S.-North Korea summit in Singapore, our government was able to turn a war crisis into a period of peace."
