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At a high-level meeting with China, which was held shortly after those three consecutive meetings, the Biden administration displayed a very tough stance on China.
On the other hand, North Korea broke silence with Kim Yo-jong's "advice" to the U.S. and following First Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui's statement made their stance clear that the North will cling to a "power for power, goodwill for goodwill" principle unless the U.S. withdraws its hostile policy against North Korea. In the ensuing days, Pyongyang even dared to fire short-range projectiles that we may see as a preview of a potential tug-of-war with Washington.
While the U.S. and China are expected to maintain their rivalry in the coming years by criss-crossing from competition to dialogue and from checks and cooperation, uncertainties are highly likely to increase in Northeast Asia.
Under these circumstances, the burning interest for the Korean Peninsula lies in when and how the U.S.-North Korea dialogue will unfold after the policy review of the U.S. The South Korean government is eager to find ways to overcome obstacles in order to restart inter-Korean relations and the Korean Peninsula peace process.
The Moon Jae-in administration has repeatedly stated both to North Korea and the international community that it will pursue humanitarian cooperation, including the COVID-19 quarantine, to restore inter-Korean relations. Yet North Korea remains unresponsive. It is a bit safe to assume that the North may understand humanitarian cooperation between the two Koreas as the most urgent issue under the pandemic and the international community can be surely supportive of such projects.
However, some local media reported as if the international community disagreed with the South Korean government on the issue. Regarding Unification Minister Lee In-young's recent comment saying "we may have to carefully evaluate sanctions against North Korea if it has aggravated people's lives" in the North, some local press insist that the U.S. and the EU disagree with Minister Lee, quoting spokespersons of the U.S. and the EU to say "it is the North Korean regime to be blamed for its border blockade and aggravation of people's daily lives in North Korea."
Does the international community including the U.S. really disagree with the idea that the sanctions may make life more difficult for North Korean people?
With the flood, sanctions, and prolonged COVID-19 pandemic, the North Korean economic situation is actually getting worse. Acknowledging these difficulties, the international community has already pointed out the adverse effects of sanctions and adopted measures to flexibly implement them.
Article 48 of UNSC resolution 2270 clearly states that "resolutions are not intended to have adverse humanitarian consequences for the civilian population." Last year's report by a panel of experts on the U.N. Sanctions Committee of the Security Council suggests that sanctions have affected unintended consequences to North Korean people.
With the increasing demand for humanitarian assistance especially for socially vulnerable groups under the current pandemic, a more flexible approach is much needed in that strict implementation of sanctions may hamper efforts to provide quarantine equipment and vaccines. This raises concerns that we need a flexible implementation of sanctions. Last November, the UNSC Sanctions Committee was well aware of the nature of the problem and has improved the sanctions exemption process to ensure a rapid and efficient delivery of emergency humanitarian assistance.
A flexible implementation of sanctions in the field of humanitarian cooperation not only improves human rights, but also goes in line with the Biden administration's foreign policy. After Biden's inauguration, the White House released the national security memorandum to evaluate whether sanctions are unduly hindering responses to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Secretary Blinken and others also consistently expressed their willingness to provide humanitarian assistance to North Korea. While the U.S. government highlights the importance of addressing North Korean human rights issues, as humanitarian assistance contributes to the human rights situation of North Korean civilians, both issues should be considered simultaneously.
This March, Senator Markey and Representative Levin reintroduced the "Enhancing North Korea Humanitarian Assistance Act" which streamlines the sanctions exemption process. They highlighted that the U.S. government should conduct a comprehensive review to ensure that sanctions are not standing in the way to save lives. Also, they added that sanctions will not be successful if they prevent basic humanitarian assistance, which is in line with what Minister Lee said.
A flexible implementation of sanctions can also facilitate dialogue with North Korea on the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. As North Korea continues to demand the U.S. withdraw its hostile policy to resume bilateral dialogue, the U.S. can consider a number of options as an initial step for resuming talks. Among these options, the flexible implementation of sanctions is less controversial and is in line with the U.S.' policy as aforesaid.
If the dialogue between North Korea and the U.S. starts by building confidence through eased sanctions, it will be like catching two birds with a stone, because it is highly likely to contribute to substantially improving the human rights situation in the communist country and bringing North Korea back to the negotiating table for denuclearization and peace on the Korean Peninsula.
How to create momentum during the first half of this year will decide whether South Korea, the U.S. and North Korea are able to sit at the negotiation table again.
While the U.S.-China rivalry is an emerging issue, North Korea's nuclear threat has already become too much of a real threat to be dealt with as part of America's China policy. The U.S. should separate its North Korea policy from China. If the outcome of the U.S.' policy review does not suit North Korea, it is expected to take a 'power to power' approach and escalate tension on the Korean Peninsula. I
f Washington wants to seize the opportunity, it should be decisive in its North Korean policy. I must say that the flexible implementation of sanctions for humanitarian assistance, as the South Korean government suggested, would not be a fruitless policy option.
Yang Moo-jin (yangmj@kyungnam.ac.kr) is a professor at the University of North Korean Studies and vice chairman of the Korean Association of North Korean Studies. He is also a standing committee member of the National Unification Advisory Council and policy consultant at the Ministry of Unification.
