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| A TV screen shows a file image of a North Korean missile launch during a news program at Seoul Station in Seoul, Nov. 9. AP-Yonhap |
Advocacy group launched for South Korea's long-term nuclear strategy
By Jung Min-ho
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| Cheong Seong-chang, an expert on North Korea at the Sejong Institute |
Many South Koreans today believe the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is nothing more than just a political slogan that won't bring real changes. According to one expert, the only way to achieve that goal is, ironically, for South Korea to build its own nuclear weapons.
Skeptics have always dismissed the idea of a nuclear South Korea as unrealistic. But Cheong Seong-chang, 57, a senior analyst at the Sejong Institute, a think tank, remains optimistic. In the long run, he said, it is far more achievable than many believe, given the rapidly changing geopolitical environment.
"South Korea needs to start developing its own nuclear weapons, which is the only available way that can ultimately lead to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula," Cheong said in a recent interview. "Unless South Korea begins the process, North Korea and China will not budge. Then, the next thing the world will face is a North Korea armed with more advanced, a greater number of nuclear weapons."
Earlier this month, Cheong launched the ROK Forum for Nuclear Strategy, an advocacy group to develop and promote the necessity for South Korea's nuclear armament and concrete ways to achieve it. More than a dozen experts from various fields, such as international relations scholars and nuclear engineers, and nearly 30 members in their 20s and 30s have joined so far.
The stated objectives of the group are establishing a lasting peace on the peninsula through nuclear balance and developing an internationally acceptable logic for the initiative.
The first step of the "four-phase strategy" Cheong proposes is for the government to declare its intent to withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) if North Korea, say, conducts another nuclear weapons test, or any other event showing the development of its nuclear threat. The declaration would deter the North from proceeding and draw global attention to ― and hopefully a serious discussion over ― the issue.
Given that its Article 10 allows members to leave if adherence to the pact would jeopardize its supreme national interests, he believes South Korea can do so without violating NPT rules.
"The Yoon Suk-yeol administration should use this card as North Korea is now believed to be ready for its seventh nuclear weapons test to increase international pressure on the regime and strengthen justification for South Korea's next move," Cheong said.
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| U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, left, and South Korean Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup hold a joint press conference in the Pentagon press briefing room in Washington, Nov. 3. AFP-Yonhap |
If North Korea ignores the warning and proceeds, South Korea should take the second step by withdrawing from the NPT and declaring its intent to develop its own nuclear weapons under the condition that it would halt the process at any time if the North returns to negotiations. All this would put enormous pressure on China, which has reluctantly tolerated the North's advancing nuclear arsenal not far from Beijing despite its own discomfort.
The third step, he said, is to start building nuclear weapons ― possibly "low-yield" weapons, which could be developed without nuclear tests, according to some scientists. By this stage, South Korean officials should have reached a deal with their U.S. counterparts for cooperation, such as the connivance the U.S. gave to Israel when it was unofficially developing nuclear weapons.
Skeptics say the U.S. would not be convinced. Maybe. But Donald Trump, as a presidential candidate in 2016, told the media that he was open to South Korea developing nuclear weapons and even planned to pull U.S. forces completely out of the country. As an increasing number of Republican leaders imitate his strategy of focusing on domestic issues, Cheong thinks there will be "a window of opportunity" in the coming years.
"This is why taking a long-term perspective is important. I think there will be an opportunity. But unless we are prepared, we won't be able to seize it," he said.
Persuading South Korean politicians may be the least challenging part. As many polls show a majority of the people support South Korea developing its own nuclear weapons, politicians will react to their demands eventually, Cheong said. A poll released in February by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs found that 71 percent of South Koreans supported nuclear weapons. Hong Joon-pyo, Daegu mayor and former presidential contender of the ruling People Power Party, and former lawmaker Yoo Seong-min are among the political heavyweights raising their voices for nuclearization.
The fourth and final phase is to start negotiating with North Korea as a nuclear-armed state for nuclear disarmament on both sides. If the North agrees to get rid of all its nuclear weapons, the South should do the same. But a more realistic goal is to reduce the number of weapons to fewer than 10, which would make it difficult to use them offensively. Cheong called this a state of "semi-denuclearization," which would significantly lower the risks of nuclear attack by either side.
"It is important to convey the message that South Korea has no other choice but to develop nuclear weapons and that it takes the step for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, not just South Korea," he said.
