Subscribe
E-Paper
 |
By Mitch Shin
On Aug. 24, the mugshot of former U.S. President Donald Trump released by the Fulton County Sheriff's Office framed him as the accused who will quite probably be declared guilty in the upcoming years, considering the multiple criminal charges he faces. However, his approval ratings have remained overwhelming against his contenders within the Republican Party, demonstrating Republicans' unwavering support toward him. Some polls show he will win in the 2024 presidential election against incumbent U.S. President Joe Biden.
Against this backdrop, the South Korean government needs to prepare for the possibility of a second Trump administration.
Although the U.S. Republicans and Democrats appear to have taken a similar approach to North Korea over the past decades, Seoul should start orchestrating strategies on how to work with the second Trump administration, considering Trump's previous businessman-style attempts to directly negotiate with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
Since the breakdown of the U.S.-North Korea summit in Hanoi in 2019, North Korea has been shoring up its missile capabilities rapidly. After conducting an unprecedented number of missile tests in 2022, it is now aiming to develop more advanced nuclear weaponry which can directly threaten the security of the United States. Pyongyang's two failed attempts this year to send a reconnaissance satellite into orbit demonstrate how the North is eager to strengthen its asymmetric military capabilities against the overwhelming conventional military capabilities of the U.S. and South Korea. With its plans for a third spy satellite test launch in October, it is also trying to upgrade its solid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine-launched ballistic missiles.
If Trump wins the election and takes office in January 2025, he will attempt again to resolve the North's growing nuclear capabilities in his own way. Therefore, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, the conservative president who prioritizes strengthening military cooperation with the U.S. and Japan over dialoguing with North Korea, needs to diversify his diplomatic strategies. Regardless of his pursuit to pressure North Korea to the precipice by strengthening trilateral military cooperation and urging the U.S. and the U.N. to impose more economic sanctions, Yoon should recalibrate his policy on the North to prevent the U.S. and the North from showing off their military capabilities against each other on the Korean Peninsula.
Despite the possibility of witnessing a bromance between Yoon and Trump, considering the machismo they have shown, the more concerning point is the possibility of South Korea and Japan developing their own nuclear weapons if Trump's approach again fails to push Pyongyang to paralyze its nuclear facilities. Given Yoon's hawkish overtureson North Korea and the tremendous support of South Koreans on the idea of the country having its own nuclear weapons, the current South Korean administration and the ruling People Power Party will definitely take steps forward to make a plan with a timeline to develop nuclear weapons if Trump shows his public support for this dangerous idea. If this happens, it would fuel Pyongyang's ambition to possess overwhelming nuclear programs against South Korea, exacerbating the security environment on the Korean Peninsula. Further, a nuclear spiral will occur in the East Asia region and a new Cold War will officially begin on the Korean Peninsula.
According to John Bolton's book "The Room Where It Happened," Trump wanted to withdraw U.S. troops from South Korea to pressure Seoul to pay $5 billion during the Special Measures Agreement negotiations years ago. Thankfully, the U.S. Congress passed a bill in 2019 to restrict the drawdown of the U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) after Trump's reckless attempt to overcharge South Korea for the defense costs by using the USFK as a bargaining chip. However, as the latest six-year defense cost-sharing deal will expire in 2027, the second year of Trump's term if he wins the election, the Yoon administration would need to make a contingency plan so as not to experience such an unacceptable situation again in the future.
North Korea pledged not to return to the negotiating table unless the U.S. and South Korea make concessions first. Trump's approach to negotiating with Kim will not work as it did in 2018. The strategic competition between the U.S.-led alliance and the bloc of China, Russia and North Korea will aggravate.
Bracing for Trump's return to power, Seoul needs to pave the way for diplomatic options such as declaring an official end to the 1950-53 Korean War as an impetus to renew the stalled nuclear talks. Even though Yoon has criticized this idea harshly, Seoul is responsible for constructing the very foundations of a peaceful Korean Peninsula free of nuclear weapons by suggesting fresh ideas to Trump if he reassumes office in January 2025.
Mitch Shin is a young fellow at The Institute for Peace & Diplomacy. Shin was an assistant editor and chief Koreas correspondent for The Diplomat, and a non-resident research fellow at The Institute for Security & Development Policy, Stockholm Korea Center.
