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OECD revises down Korea's 2024 growth outlook to 2.2%

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A man passes by the headquarters of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in Paris, France, in this 2017 June file photo. AP-Yonhap

A man passes by the headquarters of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in Paris, France, in this 2017 June file photo. AP-Yonhap

Country's inflation outlook remains unchanged at 2.7%
By Yi Whan-woo

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) cut its 2024 economic growth forecast for Korea to 2.2 percent, Monday, slightly down from 2.3 percent announced in its previous forecast back in November 2023.

The inflation outlook for Korea this year was kept steady at 2.7 percent.

The updated growth estimate for Asia's fourth-largest economy is the same as the projection by the Ministry of Economy Finance, and higher than that of the Bank of Korea (BOK) at 2.1 percent.

The OECD's downward revision contradicts the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) updated growth estimate for Korea, which was announced last week. It was revised up to 2.3 percent from a previous forecast of 2.2 percent back in October 2023.

The Paris-headquartered OECD did not explain why it slashed the forecast for Korea as it released its first updated interim world economic outlook for this year.

"Under the circumstances, we predict the organization, in its update, took into account the Korean government's forecast of 2.2 percent as addressed in the 2024 economic policy directions in January," the Ministry of Economy and Finance said.

Joo Won, director of the Hyundai Research Institute, said, "Stagnant private spending in Korea was possibly behind the OECD's downward revision despite the country's export rebound."

The OECD forecast the global economy to expand 2.9 percent this year after estimating the growth rate at 2.7 percent in November.

The organization assessed the world had resilient recovery last year as inflation eased faster than expected and economic activities picked up pace.

It assessed that such growth momentum, however, weakened at the end of 2023.

It added that international trade still remains sluggish this year but shows sign of a rebound on the back of sales of chips, IT devices, cars as well as travel demand.

The organization, nevertheless, warned that geopolitical risks stemming from the Red Sea crisis can put upward pressure on shipping costs as freight shipping rate can increase and cause a shipping delay.

Also addressed as risks for the global economy were low recovery in credit ratings and weakened transactions in the housing market.

By country, the OECD said the U.S., on the back of robust spending in the country, drove the world's economic recovery.

It also said the U.S. will sustain moderate growth on the back of eased inflation, increase in real wages, and widely-anticipated rate cuts, among other plus factors.

Correspondingly, the U.S. economic outlook for 2024 was revised up to 2.1 percent, a significant gain from a previous forecast of 1.5 percent.

The growth projection for the G20 economies was revised up to 2.9 percent from 2.8 percent.

The growth forecast remained unchanged at 4.7 percent for China, which, according to the OECD, suffers from weakened consumer sentiment while lacking social safety nets and struggles with high debts.

The euro area is anticipated to rebound in the second half of 2024 but will remain sluggish in the first half due to tightened monetary policies and decreased consumer demand.

The growth outlook for the euro area fell to 0.6 percent from 0.9 percent.

The OECD also cut its economic growth forecast for Germany, which fell to 0.3 percent from 0.6 percent, and France, which retreated to 0.6 percent from 0.8 percent.

The forecasts for the United Kingdom and Italy remained unchanged at 0.7 percent each.

Yi Whan-woo yistory@koreatimes.co.kr


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