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Plunging Korean won causes FX losses for financial groups

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By Lee Kyung-min
gettyimagesbank

gettyimagesbank

Korea's leading financial groups have incurred significant foreign exchange (FX) losses in the first three months of this year, crippled by the plummeting value of the country's won against the U.S. dollar, market sources said Monday.

Their losses to the tune of tens of billions of won are explained by their foreign currency debt climbing faster than foreign currency assets.

Experts say the financial soundness concerns could be extended in the quarters to come, conditioned upon changes in the investor preference for the strong dollar sustained by lingering fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East and the higher-for-longer path of the U.S. Federal Reserve.

The groups say the short-term financial market volatility factor will have a limited one-off impact on their balance sheets, buffered largely by their close management of overseas operation risks.

According to market sources, Hana Financial Group registered 81.3 billion won ($59.1 million) in FX losses in the January to March period. It posted 77.1 billion won in profit in the previous quarter.

The losses are expected to be similar for their peers — KB, Shinhan and Woori.

Propelling the losses was the rapid depreciation of the won over the past few months.

The won plunged to lower than 1,400 won per dollar on April 16, buffeted by the escalating conflict in the Middle East.

The won's 17-month low breaking the significant 1,400 won barrier unsettled many, since two of the three previous times it has happened were associated with a full-blown economic crisis.

Some local brokerages say the figure could tank further to 1,450 won on fears of expanded geopolitical conflict. KB Securities and Korea Investment & Securities projected that it could touch 1,440 won.

Meritz Securities researcher Park Soo-yeon said the currency could slide to 1,420 won in the second quarter. It may even crash further to 1,450 won, in Park's view, if the financial authorities do not intervene.

Increases in banks' FX losses can undermine their financial profile, according to Park, as borne out by a lower Bank for International Settlements equity capital ratio.

"The capital soundness of financial groups will somewhat come under strain, but not to the extent their total balance sheets are in immediate jeopardy," she said.

Hi Investment & Securities researcher Park Sang-hyun said the figure will stabilize.

"Korea's economy is hardly in crisis, as evidenced by robust fundamentals," he said. "It is difficult to say the weakening currency will remain on a continued downward trajectory."

The sentiment is echoed by Cho Yoon-je, a former rate-setting member of the Bank of Korea.

"Korea's current account surplus is showing signs of improvement, a positive for the economy coupled with large foreign reserves and overall fundamentals," he said during a presser April 16.

Hana Financial Group said the group will "fortify foreign debt and liability position management, identify and ready lines of credit, and outline measures to counter potential extreme volatility in the market."

Lee Kyung-min lkm@koreatimes.co.kr


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