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Korea among advanced Asian countries with tempered inflation: IMF

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Krishna Srinivasan, center, director of the Asia and Pacific Department at International Monetary Fund (IMF), speaks during a virtual conference, Tuesday. Courtesy of IMF

Krishna Srinivasan, center, director of the Asia and Pacific Department at International Monetary Fund (IMF), speaks during a virtual conference, Tuesday. Courtesy of IMF

Rebounding high-end electronics exports positive for growth
By Lee Kyung-min

Korea was among the few advanced economies in Asia that were able to temper inflation, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Tuesday.

The country is projected to grow 2.3 percent this year, underpinned by recovering demand for high-end electronics. This is a major improvement from last year's growth of 1.4 percent.

The mid-2 percent figure is indicative of Korea's strong resilience, compared to only 1.6 percent average growth expected from its advanced Asia-Pacific peers — Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore and Taiwan.

The assessment was made in the IMF APAC regional economic outlook.

"In Korea and Singapore, inflation has declined more sharply, and demand is expected to strengthen," the report said. "Growth is projected to increase from 1.4 percent to 2.3 percent in Korea and from 1.1 percent to 2.1 percent in Singapore. Both economies are also benefiting from the rebound in high-end electronics exports."

The forecast for Korea is much rosier than Japan, for example.

Japan is expected to see growth slowing from 1.9 to 0.9 percent in 2024, as one-off factors that boosted activity in 2023 fade. Included are strong exports and a surge in tourism.

Monetary policies of Australia and New Zealand may need to remain tighter for longer, the organization recommended, given stubborn inflationary pressures.

"The stance is expected to contribute to a growth decline from 2.1 percent to 1.5 percent in Australia and to subdued growth of about 1 percent in New Zealand in 2024," the report said.

Price pressures in Asia-Pacific are easing and remain lower than in the rest of the world, the IMF said.

"Post-pandemic inflation in the region peaked at around half the levels seen elsewhere, reflecting timely monetary tightening as well as temporary price controls and subsidies that contained commodity price pressures."

The report said growth in the Asia-Pacific region is stronger than previously projected but will slow from 5 percent in 2023 to 4.5 percent in 2024. The region remains inherently dynamic and accounts for about 60 percent of global growth.

"Drivers of growth include resilient domestic consumption in most ASEAN countries as well as strong public investment in China and India. A sharp uptick in tourism in Pacific Island countries also helped," Krishna Srinivasan, director of the Asia and Pacific Department at the IMF, said during a virtual conference.

China is a source of both upside and downside risks, he added.

"Policies aimed at addressing stresses in the property sector and to boost domestic demand will both help China and the region," he said. "But sectoral policies contributing to excess capacity will hurt China and the region. Geoeconomic fragmentation remains a significant risk."

Lee Kyung-min lkm@koreatimes.co.kr


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