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Korean exporters seen as biggest beneficiaries of Biden's new tariffs on China: analysts

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A worker assembles an SUV at a car plant of Li Auto, a major Chinese electric vehicle maker, in Changzhou in eastern China's Jiangsu province,  March 27. The Biden administration  announced plans to slap new tariffs on Chinese EVs, advanced batteries, solar cells, steel, aluminum and medical equipment. AP-Yonhap

A worker assembles an SUV at a car plant of Li Auto, a major Chinese electric vehicle maker, in Changzhou in eastern China's Jiangsu province, March 27. The Biden administration announced plans to slap new tariffs on Chinese EVs, advanced batteries, solar cells, steel, aluminum and medical equipment. AP-Yonhap

By Luna Sun

Korean exporters, especially makers of electric vehicles (EVs), batteries and solar power equipment, could be some of the biggest beneficiaries of Biden's new tariffs on China, analysts said.

The comments were made after U.S. President Joe Biden increased tariffs on $18 billion worth of various Chinese imports strategically linked to national security, as the world's largest economy tries to protect its domestic production from cheaper Chinese goods.

The new tariff rates, set to take place over the next two years, will range from 100 percent on EVs to 50 percent for solar cells, and 25 percent for all other sectors including steel and aluminum, battery components and critical minerals.

As China's major global competitor in the manufacturing of EVs, batteries and solar parts, Korea's competitiveness in these supply chains is set to see a major boost in the U.S. market as a result of the new tariffs, analysts pointed out.

According to the U.S. International Trade Commission, exports of Korean EVs could rise 10 percent if global tariffs on Chinese EVs are increased 20 percent.

As the Biden tariff plan will triple tariffs for Chinese lithium-ion batteries from 7.5 percent to 25 percent, Korea will also be one of the most direct beneficiaries, as the global battery landscape is essentially dominated by the two countries.

Korean companies that use Chinese imported components may face increased costs due to the tariffs, said Liujun Liu, a new energy analyst with a Shenzhen-based capital management company.

"But as the world's second-largest battery supplier, the competitiveness of Korean battery products in the U.S. market is set to improve as Chinese companies temporarily abandon their ambitions to enter the American market amid greater challenges."

Chinese companies are now faced with limited options: either forfeit the U.S. market, or move their manufacturing facilities out of China as well as start joint ventures, Liu pointed out.

"As Korean battery manufacturers have lots of U.S. clients, Chinese companies could be incentivized to increase investments in Korea, but it would be challenging for those who already have a large number of orders from China or those who manage major supply chains in China," she said.

Nonetheless, Korea will be the most direct beneficiary in its competitiveness.

U.S. President Joe Biden speaks in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington, May 14,  announcing plans to impose major new tariffs on electric vehicles, semiconductors, solar equipment and medical supplies imported from China. AP-Yonhap

U.S. President Joe Biden speaks in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington, May 14, announcing plans to impose major new tariffs on electric vehicles, semiconductors, solar equipment and medical supplies imported from China. AP-Yonhap

According to a report published in January by SNE Research, a global market research services provider on the rechargeable battery industry, Chinese battery makers had been rapidly expanding their global market share in non-Chinese markets.

Largely thanks to that, the market share of Korea's top three battery companies, LG Energy Solution, SK and Samsung SDI, fell by 5.4 percentage points in the first 11 months of last year to 48.5 percent compared to the same period of 2022, despite overall growth.

The new tariff plans would help narrow the cost difference between CATL and other manufacturers producing out of China, said Cosimo Ries, an analyst at Beijing-based consultancy Trivium China.

"By raising the cost of Chinese imports and with LG and so on setting up more and more capacity within the U.S., I think that definitely will give these projects a big edge, even though they're most likely still more expensive," he said.

The new duties will also help companies regain market share from Chinese competitors in the solar industry, industry insiders said.

For instance, Hanwha Q Cell, one of the world's largest solar module manufacturers, has suffered a great deal over the past year and a half as a result of Chinese overcapacity.

It has been one of the main lobbying forces behind the solar tariffs as it tries to reinforce its U.S. market position through regulatory measures. In February, the company filed a formal petition with the U.S. Trade Representative, requesting the Biden administration to revoke the tariff exemption on solar modules to impact the sales of Chinese solar products.

The U.S. government is now trying to work together with the Mexican government to cut off access for these Chinese makers who are trying to bypass these trade restrictions.

It's likely that they'll do the same for solar panel exports out of Southeast Asia, Ries said.

"I would not be the least surprised if they will work together with the Korean government to do the same," he said. "If the Biden administration can win reelection, this more concerted effort with allies to cut Chinese firms out and to prevent them from circumventing these trade restrictions."

However, the tariff plans look great on paper, he said, but added that the actual effect will depend on how it actually plays out, because a lot of it seems like election time posturing.

Luna Sun is an economy reporter with the South China Morning Post. She is currently based in Seoul, reporting for both The Korea Times and the South China Morning Post via an exchange program.

Luna luna.sun@ktimes.com


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